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12/1/2014 6:22:46 AM
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Well...that's not how statistics also stack up.
Because you are talking about individual results, not group statistics.
Yes, every conceivable pattern has equal chances.
Getting 100 heads in a row has the same chance as every 100 coin flip result, sure.
But the chance of getting 1+ tails within 100 flips is much, much, much greater.
Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.)
It is more probable that Bungie hand picks which items to sell.
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Vegas loves people like you. [quote]Compound probability shows that getting 4 of the same thing in a row is significantly much rarer than getting different things, (as in a tails amongst heads.)[/quote] How are you not getting this compound probability doesn't apply to independent events. Look anywhere you want and find one scenario from a credible source that compound probability applies to independent events. If you can do that "gh0st wh1sp3r is the greatest" will by my signature on every post for a year. If you can't I win.
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Um. Compound probability DOES apply to a set of events, it's called "serial probability." The probability of getting 100 heads in a row is "nearly impossible" for the sake of statistics. Getting 50 heads and 50 tails total is the expected. Getting 100 in a row is astronomically difficult to do, save for rigging the system (a weighted coin.) The fact that you are suggesting that RNG statistics and Vegas gambling overlap is absurd and shows you have little understanding of statistics.
