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由CaptainChortles编辑: 11/28/2014 11:35:08 AM
5
Your post follows the same logic as this. [quote]There is a raffle with one grand prize and 1,000,000 participants. Bob got the prize. The odds of Bob being the one to get the prize are 1 / 1,000,000 = 0.0001%. Thus, we can tell that the raffle was rigged in Bob's favor.[/quote] Hopefully, you can see how illogical this is. He sells three items a week, all of which have six possible options. Assuming equal weighting, the odds that one or more of these items is the same as the week before any time he comes is ~42%. (5/6 chance for each slot it'll be different, odds they are all different is (5/6)^3, odds one or more are the same is the inverse of that) Knowing you, if he sold The Armamentarium twice you'd be posting about how that's only 2.78% odds. Yes, technically the odds of rolling that [i]specific[/i] item in that [i]specific[/i] slot twice is 2.78% in [i]exactly two rolls.[/i] You'd look like a blundering idiot, however, as the real thing that matters, the odds of [i]any[/i] one of his three armor pieces being the same as last time, is 42%. Under 3%, 42%. Seeing the difference? It's the same as the fact that there was a 0.0001% chance that Bob would win the raffle, which means [i]nothing[/i] because there was a 100% chance SOMEONE would win it and whoever won it, it would be unlikely. Moving on. In three weeks, the odds of getting the same armor, any piece of armor, in a row 3 times is a little above 7%. 4 times is a little above 1%. However that's not exact (I treated the odds for "one or more" being a duplicate as "one" being a duplicate, which will give slightly lower odds than the real thing, because I'm lazy.) and only holds true if he only showed up 4 times. He's appeared a dozen times. So then we have to get into the odds of what's the likelihood of any of the three slots rolling any item four times in a row within twelve rolls if you want anything meaningful. Even that is assuming that everything is equally weighted. Also, please people, in the future, do not use this logic. You can do this with anything. You can see a license plate containing something meaningful to you and calculate the exact odds of that exact car having that exact plate, blow your mind and believe that aliens are manipulating the traffic. That, or you can realize that you pass an astounding amount of cars on the road every day and each one of them has a chance of having a plate that means SOMETHING important to you. The odds of getting a specific abnormal pattern is small but the odds of getting [i]any[/i] abnormal pattern is pretty big. The odds of getting Voidfang Vestments 4 times in a row in 4 visits is extremely tiny but the odds of getting any of the 18 armor pieces Xur sells over 3 slots 3-4 times in a row in 12 visits is not all that small. --- Note that this is not a comment on whether or not Xur is controlled by RNG. Just that the fact he sometimes sells an item 3-4 times in a row is not solid proof that Bungie is messing with us.
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