I'm trying to crunch numbers on the likelihood of getting a specific piece of raid gear to drop over numerous clears. In this example, I am still missing the Warlock gauntlets on Crown of Sorrow after 8 clears, most of which included challenges. There are 5 drops per raid (including challenge) with a total loot table of 9 pieces including weapons. That means you have a 1 out of 9 (or 11%) chance of getting the drop you want per encounter. I have roughly 35 different chests with an 11% chance on each one. The formula I found online suggests that, in order to calculate the odds of LOSING, you multiply the losing chance with itself 35 times, so: 0.89^35 (89% to the power of 35). If my math is right, that means that there was only a 1.7% chance that I would NOT have gotten the gauntlets after 8 clears. Those are very low odds, and yet here I am. So this begs the question..... do we think that Bungie lowers the drop rate on missing pieces of gear to increase weekly player engagement? These types of situations, at least from my perspective, seem to be MUCH more common among players than what my math would suggest. And knowing Bungie and their addictive psychology schemes, I wouldn't be surprised if they were withholding drops to get players to clear more raids. What do you think?