I don't post much, but in the past I have a good track record of feedback. I preempted the exotic-rahool focusing. ___ "Shiny" weapons, as the community has dubbed the rare brave version of the into the light weapons are an incredible solution to a growing problem of player retention rates, and dwindling player count over the longest season Destiny 2 will have ever had. However, the ideal design of a solution to a problem, should not present additional problems. ___ ### Drop Rates in all endgame activities Current data suggests that the drop rate of a shiny weapon is no [i]greater[/i] than a 3% chance every time you as a player receive a weapon, whether it is from the activity, or the chest in the Hall of Champions. This data was using the legend mode of onslaught for testing as well; for if there were to be a disparity in drop rates, we would surely have a better chance at the rarer gear while in the harder activity (eg. Nightfalls). This means that over a single run of a legend onslaught (11 chests) you have approximately a [i]29% chance of getting (at least) one shiny weapon. [/i] The average run is probably 70-90 min. This may sound good, but let's contrast time here with other end game pursuits. A GM nightfall has a 100% of giving the adept weapon on a platinum completion. Average run time of 20-30min. A trip to the lighthouse has a 100% chance of 1 (technically 2 when you turn in your card) adept weapons for that week. Average time for a decent PVP player is probably 120 min. (Time varies greatly with skill) A Master Raid encounter + Challenge has a 100% drop rate of the adept weapon for that encounter/raid. Average time to complete for a decent team is probably no more than 20-30min. ___ ## Endgame Challenges & Rewards Obviously all end game activities require skill, but they also all carry a guarantee of success if you can meet the skill threshold. This keeps those activities rewarding, and allows them to be difficult accomplishments. Imagine going to the lighthouse and only having a 1/3 chance of getting that Adept Summoner to drop? You have to go 3 times, and even then it isn't guaranteed. Just very good odds that you will have gotten at least one. The current Legend Onslaught has the skill requirement in place for a fire team to complete. It takes far longer than other PVE activities. ### Solutions The final bonus chest (the 3rd one at the end) should be containing a guaranteed shiny of the currently attuned weapon (or a random one if no attunement is present). The other two chests (upon completing 50 waves on legend) should have a higher than normal chance (maybe 15% instead of 3%) of containing additional shiny weapons because of the time commitment the PVE activity requires to complete. This isn't a "griping about RNG" post. I'm able to farm consistently and will probably get rolls I chase. But due to the limited time nature of these drops, and the difficulty of Legend for most players along with the time requirement, it is only appropriate that the drop rate on completion matches other end-game activities. 100% ### Crunchy Numbers If we want to get into the real statistics: let's assume the best case that you get 12 chests per legend onslaught, with a 70min run (1 chest from the Hall of champs for coins afterwards). How many chests do we need to "hit" that roll at least once statistically (meaning we have a less than 5% chance of failure). Using the generous base number of 3% chance. We have a chance of success that exceeds 95% (technically 95.098%) if we commit to opening [i]NINETY-NINE[/i] chests. And that is the chance of getting at least 1 single shiny. Bear in mind, the attuned one is just weighted more than the others when you do get a shiny. So when you do finally hit that 3% chance, the odds of getting even the weapon you want are poor (1/6 currently) and only getting worse. There is no assurance that you will get the one you want other than attunement, which is not even a guarantee. Obviously most people should get one far before this, but that is when it passes the delta of 5% that *not* getting a single roll is significantly insignificant. For context, that would be one of the chests somewhere along the 9th run of onslaught. [b][i]Or only 9 hours & 20 minutes[/i][/b] into farming. In that same time, a decent player could get: 8 trials adepts (assuming they turn in their card for an additional roll every time, and don't farm the 7-win card), 18-19 nightfall adept weapons (not counting the ciphers turned into Zavala), or about 27 raid adepts on the weekly farmable master raid. ### Conclusion This comes to the heart of the issue. Bungie introduced random rolls forever ago, and have been using RNG for a long time to help artificially create FOMO. They recognized how bad of a problem this was and rolled out the crafting system for weapons presently. They realized their mistake too late in the number of weapons they were adding to the game as crafted, and they realized that they lost player retention because crafting removed the RNG chase. Instead of solving the retention problem, they have gone back to the old RNG weapon perk FOMO that was causing bad sentiment in the first place. They see any fomo as good fomo, and that has been proven to not be the case. The right way to give players FOMO is by making us feel like we are missing pivotal moments in the game: Story-driven, activity based, fear of missing out. People remember stuff with their friends and the stories forged along the way. Bungie needs to tap into [i]that[/i] resource, rather than their old tired attempt at fake fomo of missing out on a weapon which they will then have to outdo on the next iteration. Make me feel like I will miss out witnessing the unfolding events with my friends, rather than setting an arbitrarily high rarity of items.