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5/31/2025 11:50:20 PM
3
[quote]I have farmed the first encounter on Vespers host over 700 times, and have done the final encounter over 80 times, and have gotten around 40 batons with attrition orbs on them, yet none of them have the demolitionist perk on them.
The odds of me not getting one with demolitionist while getting attrition orbs over 40 times is 0.69%. The odds of me not getting one purely off just mission completions if the perk pool is truly random after over 700 first encounters and 80 final encounters are 2.7%. When we combine these statistics, I end up with a 0.00186% chance that I have not gotten one with demolitionist and attrition orbs. I am fine with being unlucky, but I am not the only one who has noticed horrible drop rates for god rolls on this weapon, and with sample sizes this large and results this bad, I can only begin to think that the perks are not truly random.
This is coming from a player who has just started "endgame" activities, and this is the first dungeon that I have really gone out of my way to grind, having almost 20% of my total game hours just spent farming this dungeon. From my perspective, it feels like the game just wants me to keep doing the dungeon to farm engagement.
I still want to try to get the roll, but it genuinely feels pointless after examining the statistics of my situation. Can anyone let me know if I am just completely wasting my time chasing this god roll, or if there is a way not to have astronomically horrible RNG?[/quote]
Just because you didn't get something doesn't mean there is an issue. You already have a low chance of getting just 1 specific perk, but then adding in 2 perks and all the other things it makes it even lower. Then that chance of getting, which is already low, gets reset each time for each one you get. It'll never increase no matter how many you get. You could do it 1000 or 1,000,000 times, and that will never change the already low percent you have of getting a super specific roll when you have a significantly higher chance to get literally anything you don't want.
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I'm well aware that the odds for getting it are really really low, but if the perks are truly random, then with 45 of my batons having attrition and none of them having demolitionist, the chances of that are 0.02%, definitely a little weird for truly "random" perks with a large enough sample size.
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[quote]I'm well aware that the odds for getting it are really really low, but if the perks are truly random, then with 45 of my batons having attrition and none of them having demolitionist, the chances of that are 0.02%, definitely a little weird for truly "random" perks with a large enough sample size.[/quote] You say you know it's low, but the bring up how after 45 of them, you should have got one by then. That's not how it works. It doesn't matter how many you get when the chance of getting a single perk resets each time you get one. And then you throw in the fact that you're after that specific single perk, making it a 5/6 chance to never get what you want. So, with there only ever being a 16.6% chance of ever getting that 1 perk and then throwing any a second perk, barrel, and mag, you're looking at an extremely low chance to ever get the roll you want. Take a break from farming for it and come back to it later or just keep spending hours and days just trying to get it.
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I don't mean 45 batons, I've gotten genuinely hundreds of them, I mean 45 with the attrition orbs perk on them. If all I care about is the 3rd and 4th perks, then by my 45 having attrition with no demo, the calculations follow: (5/6)^45 = 0.000273, which are 5/6 perks not being demolitionist and 45, which is the number of batons with attrition orbs I have. Regardless of how it's framed, the possibility of this being 0.02% and it being a reality for many players is extremely odd. Thank you for your advice, though. I'm definitely looking forward to a break lol.
