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8/9/2023 12:49:02 AM
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Trials rewards still not dropping?

My friend and I have a combined 202 flawlesses this season. We have yet to get ANY of the new exotics. Bungie doesn't give out the exact details for drop rate and percentage, but if the drops for all three new cosmetics are at 5% base with a multiplier with a 2% (first flawless per character per week only), then my friend and I should have at least (we both play on multiple characters and go flawless on them but we will ignore that for the sake of the data) a 21% chance every flawless to get the cosmetics. I didn't have time to grind as much this week, but I got 12 flawlesses in and my friend grinded 54! That would mean that the chance for us both to not get a single cosmetic is 1.8470279e-45. AKA either it's bugged or we need go and buy some lottery tickets. The drop rates could be higher or lower, but I dont remember receiving any clarity on this in the past and if the drop chance was more generous then our odds would be rather similarly close to nil. Although this is on the known issues, I still wanted to draw attention to this given the lack of attention in TWID's known issues and commentary from the community. Just wanting some clarity on this because people clearly already have the items, I am just wondering why some of us seemingly cannot. I will go ahead and link our trials reports down below for any skeptics. Also you still cannot track some gold medals if you unlocked them recently which is a huge bummer. [my friend][/https://trials.report/report/3/4611686018467922293] [myself][/https://trials.report/report/1/4611686018434227146]

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    [u]Edit:[/u] This means the chance for us both to not get a single exotic *THIS WEEK* 0.21 {0.5+(0.02 x 8)} to the power of 66 (combined flawlesses this week). If we were to calculate the total percentage every week we would have to do 0.5 + (0.02 times the number of weeks it's been since week one for this given data set) to the power of how ever many flawlesses my friend and I had gotten for that given week (making sure to keep the data consistent with our probability). I'm not the greatest at math so feel free to tell me I'm wrong lol.

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