{{
`${userDetail.user.displayName}${userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode ? `#${standardizeBungieGlobalCode(userDetail.user.cachedBungieGlobalDisplayNameCode)}` : ""}`}}
{{getUserClans()}}
10/30/2022 4:31:08 PM
22
Exotic Raid Drop Rates are Terribly Balanced
Why do some players get the raid exotic their first run, while others need to play 50+? You can’t just say it’s bad “rng” if you’ve put 30, 40, or even 50 runs into a raid, even a 2 or 3% drop chance that increases every week with “bad luck protection”, should yield the exotic in 20-30 runs. The drop rates are terribly balanced between new players and frequent d2 players. Players are earning the exotic multiple times (why? this shouldn’t even happen if they already have it), while people such as myself, can’t even get collective obligation after 50+ runs. It’s just comical at this point because bungie is letting the inequality continue to spread between the new players and the players that consistently play every week. If you ran a raid 50 times and don’t have the exotic yet, Bungie had you waste about 16 weeks of chasing, congrats.
-
1 返信[quote]Why do some players get the raid exotic their first run, while others need to play 50+? You can’t just say it’s bad “rng” if you’ve put 30, 40, or even 50 runs into a raid[/quote] Let's do some quick numbers. The standard drop rate for new Raid Exotics is touted to be 5%, so we'll go with that. That can be written as 1 in 20, which means the chance of [i]not[/i] getting the drop is 19 in 20. The chance of not getting it in successive weeks is (19/20) ^ X, where X is the number of looted clears. Multiply by 100 to turn it back into a percentage. For 30, it's 21.5%. For 40, it's 12.9%. For 5, it's 7.7%. Yes, it's annoying to not get it after that many attempts, but the chance of it happening is well within plausibility.
