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オリジナルの投稿元: Exotic Raid Drop Rates are Terribly Balanced
10/31/2022 12:36:15 PM
1
[quote]Why do some players get the raid exotic their first run, while others need to play 50+? You can’t just say it’s bad “rng” if you’ve put 30, 40, or even 50 runs into a raid[/quote] Let's do some quick numbers. The standard drop rate for new Raid Exotics is touted to be 5%, so we'll go with that. That can be written as 1 in 20, which means the chance of [i]not[/i] getting the drop is 19 in 20. The chance of not getting it in successive weeks is (19/20) ^ X, where X is the number of looted clears. Multiply by 100 to turn it back into a percentage. For 30, it's 21.5%. For 40, it's 12.9%. For 5, it's 7.7%. Yes, it's annoying to not get it after that many attempts, but the chance of it happening is well within plausibility.
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