The pros and cons of automated vehicles.
A TL;DR will be in the spoiler at the end.
A study by the center of automotive research suggests that self driving vehicles could possibly eliminate 93% of the crashes attributed to human error. That is a staggering amount of lives saved considering there are on average 1.2 million fatal car accidents each year attributed to human error. That is the upside (or atleast the biggest upside) to AV. What is the downside you ask?? The millions of jobs supported by people having accidents.
If cars don't crash as often, body shops wouldn't be required as often. It's easy to follow the line of jobs that would see significant cutbacks as well.
Emergency services/equipment
Highway safety equipment
Towing/recovery services/equipment
Traffic enforcement services/equipment
Used vehicles
Compliance professionals/investigators
Court system infrastructure/processing
Lawyers/legal services
Insurers/insurance
Construction
Even auto manufacturing would see a 68% decline in output according to the study. There would Also be decreased need for professional drivers. What does all this add up to?? A decline in employment would mean a decline in income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, traffic enforcement, and vehicle registration.
There is also a second round of impacts due to this driverless car. We would need fewer commodities such as steel, aluminum, precious metals, and oils. The federal, state and municipal bureaucracies that exist to serve the automobile would also likely get smaller.
Ok now you are wondering. Ok Owned, you are just spewing out facts and not giving me numbers.
According to the KPMG study, the automotive industry (manufacturers/suppliers/dealers) employs nearly 1.7 million people providing $500 billion in annual compensation, as well as accounting for about 3.5 percent of the total U.S. economy which is about the same as U.S. defense spending.
A study by the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association, claims suppliers produced $225.2 billion in industry shipments in 2012, accounting for nearly 4 percent of total U.S. manufacturing. The total employment of the auto parts industry (direct/indirect) was estimated at over 3.62 million jobs nationwide.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that there were 3.7 million professional drivers employed in 2014 with an average salary of $32,168. Over 1 million service technicians/mechanics/repairers were employed with an average salary of $40,765.
All this combined turns into 10 million people. That's a lot of people who are affected by a changing market. Now I'm not saying all would lose their job but a large portion would.
Ok Owned, but what about all the jobs it would create?? HOLD ONTO YOUR MAN NIPS. I'm getting there.
There will be increased demand for software/electronics products/services. AVs would still need maintenance on the electrical end ,but not nearly as much as cars nowadays require. The job growth other than this is hard to say.
I didn't mention this because I think it's a push. With less vehicles involved in accidents, less organs would be available for donation.
One can only deduce that a staggering number of people will lose their job.Is this job lose necessary to become a more evolved and efficient world? Only time will tell.
[spoiler]
Pros: 90% reduction in fatal car accidents attributed to human error.
Less injuries
Less insurance claims
Less Delays
Increased productivity
Cons: massive job displacement in several fields: body shops
Auto manufacturing
Emergency services/equipment
Professional drivers
Mechanics and technicians
Highway safety equipment
Towing/recovery services/equipment
Traffic enforcement services/equipment
Used vehicles
Compliance professionals/investigators
Court system infrastructure/processing
Lawyers/legal services
Insurers/insurance
Construction
Reduced need for certain commodities which impact federal and state jobs. [/spoiler]
All thoughts and input are welcome.
English
#Offtopic
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1 RespuestaThe pros far exceed the cons, if those jobs end up being reduced then others will increase and the market will rebalance (as it is suppose to when society advances). Mechanics will become more concentrated on regular maintenance, more jobs will be created to make reliable gps maps so that no area is a dead zone. Jobs decrease in one area and increase in another, that is how the market works (though it doesnt always work as quickly as we would like). Holding back technologies like this tend to cause more problems in the long run. An example of this could be electric cars, we held back the technology of electric cars because gas cars created so much more money and jobs, yet in the long run it has caused a countless number of problems, and it is only just now that we are attempting to break our dependence on gasoline.
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1 RespuestaCons: it drives into a tree without your say. RIP car. They need an emergency override sorta thing. Also, they can get hacked
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How am I supposed to Rev my engine when I'm next to a cop at a red light and then drive at speed limit?
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1 RespuestaWould that mean you could legally drink in your car? Because if so, I'm gonna buy one of those damn things and stay lit the whole 6 hour trip to the beach.
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3 RespuestasI'm going to hack all of them.
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1 RespuestaThe biggest? Electro-magnetic pulse. That would wipe every single car out for thousands of miles, and the rage is essentually doubled when you do it from space. Not to mention the untold havoc some crazy guy who knows how to make one could shoot cars dead when they are going 60-70mph on the highway. Before you say, "but that can happen with an actual car" yes, it can, but you still have steering controls. And can coast it to a stop.
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2 Respuestasf[b]u[/b]ck em
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1 RespuestaYou should watch some of the interviews Elon Musk gives. This man is the new Steve Jobs/Henry Ford/any other big player who changed an industry.
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Cons: No more chase scenes Pros: No more chase scenes (???)
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12 RespuestasAutomated driving should be a thing. You're basically saying that people need to crash and die so that they can have their cars fixed.
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THE TIME FOR COMMUNISM IS NOW!!!!
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1 RespuestaI found this post... Intellectually pleasing
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1 RespuestaWhere's the fun in not driving the car yourself?
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2 Respuestas1. Add an insurance to your automated vehicle 2. Drive it 3. Let itself crash 4.?????????????? 5. Profit
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9 RespuestasBut as with anything in economics you need to look past the immediate effects and look at the secondary ones. While there will be a loss, there will also be a gain; Less crashes = less insurance premiums, repair costs, medical costs, etc. More productivity for employers = more money for the businesses and cheaper products for the consumer. Money saved = money used to create other businesses and employ people in other ventures. [spoiler]Anybody interested in learning more check out Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt. It is available for free online I believe. [/spoiler]
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4 RespuestasAnything that helps me go 65 down the highway while snorting coke off a hookers ass is fine by me.
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3 RespuestasOh, like auto-pilot cars? As much as I'd like it I don't think it would be the right idea.
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11 RespuestasThe Auto industry as a whole would also suffer. The difference between makes would be aesthetics only. I'm assuming the software for these cars would be outsourced to a specialized company. What I don't understand is this: I see the profit in making these cars, but why do it if all of the liability is now put on you, the automaker? If someone gets in an accident, they will hold you responsible.
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1 Respuestai think it would be cool, you could even fall asleep while the car drives for you, couldnt you?
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I think it will take a lot of patience riding in these cars, speaking for myself and others who like to be in control. I don't even like riding with another person.
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2 RespuestasI actually enjoy driving, so i would just rather drive myself.
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1 RespuestaEditado por overdrive7538: 8/1/2015 12:12:55 PMPro: less accidents, more efficient, no drunk drivers. Con: possible computer failure resulting in a crash, possible hacking or tampering directly or remotely, legal ramifications resulting from a crash (whose at fault regarding software vs driver?) , loss of enjoyment from driving physically.
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4 RespuestasSelf bump.
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1 RespuestaWe must destroy Skynet before it's too late. We have drones and now automatic cars. It's happening. Skynet's real muddafukas.
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2 RespuestasAlso, somewhere on the internet I heard that a bunch of hackers were demonstrating how a phone, plugged into a car to be recharged, was used as a means of remotely hijacking and causing havoc to the vehicle's user. Now imagine that, but now the car is always connected to the phone, and there's no way to stop it. Millions more will die from their vehicle being hacked and swerved into an intended accident. The hacker would be immune to tracing. The vehicle would be the blamed entity, or the human. [i]Now how will we prevent[b] this?[/i][/b]
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Editado por JJ4X: 8/1/2015 9:47:32 AMIf automated cars are going to be a thing in the future, the government is going to assassinate so many political figures by hacking their cars. They'll just blame the North Koreans, or some new middle eastern folk.