At this point, I would expect the PS3 PSN, and 360 Live servers to shut down first, before Bungie shuts down D1 themselves. The original Xbox launched in 2001, and the servers shut down in 2010. The PS2 launched in 2000, and most of the servers shut down in 2012, with a Final Fantasy XI server staying up until 2016. The 360 launched in 2005, and the PS3 in 2006, so they're both at 15-ish years, well past the previous generation. With the new generation launching later this year, my guess is the old servers wouldn't stay up too much longer, as that would mean supporting three generations of servers, but I think the biggest determining factor will be how the new generation handles backwards-compatibility. Right now, if you use a 360 disc to play a game in an Xbox One, you can play that game online against players on 360, so logically, that means that the Xbox One uses the 360 servers for playing online in a BC game. If they keep to that system in the new generation, they may keep the servers up as long as possible, but I could very easily see them making it route all online activity through the servers for the new consoles and shutting down the old servers, because that way they could get rid of the older stuff, while using it to push sales of the new consoles - "If you don't upgrade, you can't play online anymore, but if you do, you'll still be able to play all your old games." But maybe that's just my tinfoil hat talking.