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3/17/2026 12:34:21 PM
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Someone help me out with this math as i really am not understanding
So putting aside that i really hate Marathon and what bungie have done to D2 because of it there is something i really dont get.
As regards to the Money from Both games
Marathon has what we believe is approx 100k players across all platforms
Lets say D2 has the same (but i believe its more looking at the Numbers )
Marathon will have season passes and Cosmetics which will be an small amount to buy but i wouldnt have thought it was going to be that much for a season pass and the cosmetics from what i gather are just not worth it.
D2 yearly has the expansion which we know is anywhere from 50 to 80 ish and Cosmetics etc for continued earning
So in my mind Marathon cannot give Bungie or Sony anywhere near the amount of residual earnings that D2 can even at a Lower player base
So if i am correct why the hell ditch D2 in favour of Marathon ?
I may have it wrong but i really cant see it
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1 RespuestaMaybe they were bored? Or maybe they wanted to make a cool PvP game?
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1 RespuestaWe’re basically missing all the important numbers to do the maths so it’s just all speculation. We don’t know the average revenue per user of each game, the real dev cost (NRC) the recurrent cost of maintaining the game (RC) the sales numbers to know how much of the dev cost was absorbed by initial sales… So there’s really no way to tell if this was a good or bad move. Looking at the trend compared to other games, it doesn’t FEEL to me like it’s a clear success, but it doesn’t look like a failure either.
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None of us will ever know the true numbers but one thing is for sure, marathon was supposed to be a big hit. Around 50k players a day doesn't sound like a hit, i would bet the sales don't come close to covering the development costs. Maybe they can survive on 50k a day but will it make Sony money? If they can't make Sony money the game could be amazing but it will get shut down. I don't see a way bungie comes out of this. I do think marathon could be better with a pve only mod for those that aren't sweaty no life bums but I don't see them doing that. Bungie needs a miracle at this point.
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Editado por Northern: 3/20/2026 4:57:42 PMMarathon 24 hour peak just fell below the 50k mark on Steam for the first time at 47,595. That's roughly a 50% drop since Marathon launched at 88k peak concurrent players. Marathon also dropped to #51 in the steam best sellers. Not exactly encouraging figures for Bungos new IP. Destiny might outlive Marathon 🤔
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1 RespuestaUh, Destiny 2 has less than 10k players right now.
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It requires less sauce, they are out of (creative) sauce They put out a game where they can do what they can get right, and avoid that which they are unable to get right, at least that's what I think
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10 RespuestasMarathon is very low maintenance, much less staff, & much less pressure to deliver content. Destiny is declining rapidly, has huge maintenance cost & needs huge staffing, plus there's no end in the creation of content loop. They've lowered destiny content to ease the outgoing costs like staffing & content production, they ideally want both games on low effort content schedules, lowest exoendtfor maximum gains. If they get it wrong they close. They are getting it wrong, for now.
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2 RespuestasD2 requires more dev time constantly having to create new content for every cycle, whether it be seasons ot the biannual updates. Marathon can almost set it and forget it. Crank out a new map every so often maybe some new weapons here and there, minimal effort to maintain once the initial balances are done and the content resets with the wipe and everyone starts again.
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4 RespuestasEditado por Darthy: 3/17/2026 5:07:14 PMD2 has a very low player count and dosent make enough money or has earning potential to justify witch Queen level dlcs or seasonal content like it used to so it dev size and content size got cut in order to make it less of a drain. Marathon is new and has a good shot at success with strong earning potential despite what some people want. You bank on the young horse with potential not the old lame horse that's already spent.
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See they are trying to have to same model they used in destiny. Get players hooked then unload a ton of skins and cosmetic bullshit that cheapen end game loot but they are hooked and the complaints will mean nothing. So glad they didnt have the turnout for this to be possible. Ya 🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿🍿 Eat it all
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What you need to understand is that like anything in life, games can be a Money laundering scheme. For now and for fun the elites have marathon. It used to be Destiny but they didn’t like how everyone could be elite. Marathons business model relies on a class system. There will always be have nots. In Destiny you could remedy this by carrying the community to a godroll. In marathon who’s to say the blueberry won’t lose the gear you spent time getting them. Was it the journey? Was it the moments while you wait for an engram to decrypt, or boss to drop the item you wanted? Either way Bungie will do anything to make a time trap with the best illusions. They killed my time trap “Khepris horn” Maybe I should be thankful
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1 RespuestaMarathon probably costs much less to maintain. 1. They are going to sunset everyone seasonally. They don’t have to maintain any gear beyond a given season if they don’t want, other than cosmetics and “triumphs”. 2. There are only 4 maps. They might add one a season. 3. They do not need to create any new “content” seasonally. It is going to be the same grind every season after reset. It will only be some new guns and abilities, but they are going to recycle D2 guardian abilities and guns. So the development cost will be lower than D2. Imagine if you take everything away from D2 except GAMBIT. Make it so multiple teams play against each other on a bigger map, throw in quests to do, and guns to collect. You get Marathon. Add in seasonal resets and all Bungie is doing is maintaining 1 game mode that gets reset every 3 months.
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6 RespuestasEditado por STiNKyWizLTeaTs: 3/18/2026 3:53:57 AMThe only metric you are missing is ARPPU x conversion rate x total players. This is the average revenue per paying user x the % of players that spend money x total players. You are right in what you are seeing. The reason this is happening is that Marathon was built to scale up. This means they expected 100s of thousands of players. For the numbers to work, they would need 300k constantly, and even that is pushing it. Realistically, 500k to 1M. Not 88k on opening day, but we really need to see the player retention number 30 days after release. Essentially, what you have is Destiny 2 having a higher ARPPU even with an extremely low conversion rate, which is never good. Nicely done though! 🫵
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I bought Marathon, but I hate it.
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1 RespuestaBungie is an expert on delusional math.
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1 RespuestaThe math doesn't have to add up when you're organizing a money laundering operation.
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4 RespuestasI think it's incorrect to say they ditched d2. They want both to be revenue streams. But fact is D2 development is expensive and even when it the games had higher player counts they company nearly went bankrupt and had to be saved by a purchase. Microsoft is on record as stating the high burn rate (as in burning through cash) was why they chose not to rebuy Bungie. And everything is getting more and more expensive these days. We also have no clue what the budgets are, cost of development, what the revenue targets are. We don't know the actual player counts. So people are just guessing often based off of implicit biases.
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Your logic is flawed as marathon has a lot more players than D2 currently. I agree I don’t like what Bungie have done but currently marathon has a bigger player base by roughly 5 times if we compare steam numbers vs steam numbers.
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10 RespuestasDestiny has around 150k daily players, marathon likely has half a million or more.
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Reading the comments.. Some people just can't wait to argue semantics.. 4 maps.. expensive.. old game model. Thats all that really needs to be said about Marathon
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2 RespuestasI mean your math isn’t mathing bc your base numbers are off… marathon steam alone is averaging 50k CC users so that normally translates to 5-12x purchases. Then there are 3x platforms. We don’t know how much development costs were nor what expected projections are. I would guess that marathon missed targets but it’s simply a guess. Destiny 2 numbers were abysmal since TFS ended. And the game is basically dead compared to how player numbers were a year ago. Updating a seasonal live service pve game is more development intensive than a pvpve game D2 has been in maintenance mode since TFS ended
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3 RespuestasD2 doesn't have more than around 20k active players. There might be a few different accounts, but Steam has drastically dipped down to 4 digit numbers. And while there aren't many indicators for XB or PS, I'd like to think that XBL LFG is a good indicator of the game's health. Rarely does this crack 40 posts in an hour, even at peak. And of the existing posts, many times 2/3 of them are 20 minutes or older. I'd venture to guess there's less than 2k players on XB and probably close to the same on PS. All in all we're talking around 20k total players globally consistently in D2. Maybe an additional 10-15k unique logins per month (that means 1-3 logins per month ie not even 1x per week). These numbers are less than Marathon's active, but here's the thing- they have known potential; Marathon doesn't. We don't know the ceiling of what Marathon is capable of. And the issue here is that Marathon is already hemorrhaging gamers. It might already be close to it's peak, and that's really concerning considering how many resources and how much time have been allocated to it.
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1 RespuestaEditado por Auronio: 3/17/2026 5:22:29 PMOnly dumb, unteachable and stubborn guys like you and me are still playing Destiny. It's a living Zombie, enjoy it as long as you can. ❤️
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1 RespuestaEditado por COMBATICUS: 3/17/2026 7:20:38 PMI was thinking, maybe they are tired of destiny? I know it's not the same team, but what if this new team wants something fresh, new. Maybe even exists with destiny. Im not making excuses for them, just a thought/guess that maybe they dont care for destiny like some of us do. They probably just want destiny to be in the back, making them w.e money they can get off the poor slops that are still throwing money at the screen for every little thing they do, even though its recycled b.s. half the time. Anyways, destiny is done for, the best you can do is find something else to enjoy and be your new game. While still jump on destiny if you like from time to time
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Development costs.
