I don't even believe he is random anymore. Ever since Deej video of accidentally spilling the beans it's been like religiouspeople vs atheists all over again about xur.

I proved he's not rng. Your my bitch now

I'll settle this for all you fools out there: it's not RNG, believe me. (Look at my name.)

Xur isn't rng. There is a thread going around with a link to a video where DEEJ says that he's not random. I don't have the link tho. It's on the thread

Too bad xur is handpicked dude and not rng

Here's proof

Spot on, I don't get why people don't understand this..

I think u guys want to believe he's RNG to explain why he doesn't have the shit u want. But in reality the shit xur has is usually predictable because it isn't -blam!-ing RNG. Bungie watches every aspect of this game They know how many exotics dropped, they know which class they dropped for, Which exotics are most used Which exotics are most likely to be used(based off playstyles) They know which players are hoarding coins and skipping xur They know which players have the most exotics They know how much time players spend playing after they aquire certain exotics They know who has purchased DLC, they know who hasn't They know which posts on the forums most accurately support the view of the community. All this is common sense. There are so many variables involved, but u can bet that Bungie has the money and manpower to calculate all of them. What you guys dont seem to believe is that Xur is one of the most important parts of this game because exotics are the most important part of this game. Do u think a fortune 500 company would leave their investment up to -blam!-ing RNG? It's an asinine assumption and anyone with any knowledge of business will tell you it's idiotic. Common sense here says picture if Xur randomly sold ghorn helm of saint, heart of praxic fire, chest engram, Achlyophage Symbiote(or mask of the 3rd man) all at the same time or within 2-3 weeks. These are the most sought after exotics, some people still run the VoG in hopes of getting ghorn alone. Once you hit the pinnicle or obtain what u wanted your playing time will inevitably diminish(as with most games), this game doesn't have enough content {yet?} To support longterm play unless they milk it into a grindfest. Not saying it's bad, just pointing out the obvious. I am almost at the pinnicle of my intended playing (almost have all exotics beat all content of the game), and Bungie can tell you that my play time has reduced since I obtained the majority of exotics. You guys can play stupid if u want, but I'm a business major, and Bungie is a company first. When it comes to money, you have to be calculated if u want to maintain wealth, if u think Bungie would let their games life be decided by a random number generator ur retarded, they use the rng to force you to grind, hence the cryptarch is a prick, Xur coming once a week gives them time to plan which exotics would be the best for their company not for the gamers. Oh and random means RANDOM, which means all items are equal, so all these theories about shit being heavily weighted (which have no actual facts behind it outside of theories you learned or copy and pasted off Wikipedia lmao) doesn't make sense in a truly RNG world. when it comes to money big money you'd be smart to place your bets on the simple answer, not the one that requires you to perform 100 different math equations and cite 1000 different sources. This is business not math, use ur common sense people. Xur is a tool, think about the day he comes, it's from Friday morning- Sunday morning, prime time for people to play video games, prime time for kids to be out of school (remember this game is oddly rated T for teens), prime time for adults to be off work. Bungie knows how many people on average log on on Friday and Saturday just for xur, don't forget that. 2 most important days for Bungie's investors are Tuesday and friday.

Here's a fallacy. Coin flips 50% heads and 50% tails right? And each previous flip doesn't change the next one correct? We'll then. You should have a 50% chance of getting 5 heads in a row correct? Nope. Odds do stack. Every week he doesn't sell the sought after exotics proves either his odds are weighted or he isn't random whatsoever. Prove me wrong. Record yourself getting 5 heads in a row with a quarter and be honest about how many tries it took you. Xur sold void fang vestments an insane amount of times in a row cuz bungie didn't wanna give away praxic fire. Also look how much more the useful in crucible exotics come around vs useful in pve. They want players to play pvp cuz it takes minimal effort to keep those players playing. Few maps here n there n you got yourself an army of little cod fanboys. Everything that happens on destiny is part of the activision business model....... Expand playtime, draw the player in deeper, and empty their pockets.

I've been trying to argue the same point but you did it a lot better than me. Thanks. Also, people have to realize that there has been 24 weeks(?) so of course some weapons will sell twice. I believe there are only 14 for now so each weapon has a 1/14 chance and as more exotics get put into his inventory the odds of that one weapon you want will decrease. So if Xur adds hawkmoon, Monte Carlo and four horsemen in September, each weapon will have a 1/17 chance.

The premise of the fallacy is that the coin is fair, i.e. not weighted for a particular result; people debate on whether this is true for Xur. On the weapon front, things seem to be following a fairly random order, but since Dark Below launched, the majority of Xur's weapons have been DLC (I still need to figure out equations for this part). This very easily could a coincidence, but there are other patterns that seem off. On the armor front, for warlocks to have 3 to 4 repeats (in a row) of Voidfang Vestments, and Starfire Protocol repeat 3 times (in a row) all in 5 months (lifespan of game) is something around 0.000001. There is a better chance I personally will win a given Ohio pick 6 lottery, and I do not expect that to happen in 5 months of trying. I very easily could've screwed my math up, and am interested in what other opinions exist, but the way warlock armor has showed up gives me a grounds to suspect Xur isn't flat RNG, it could be another bug they don't truly understand.

Trying to explain Gambler's fallacy on the forums? I've tried to do that before all I can say is good luck. People just prefer conspiracy and superstition over facts and numbers. The sooner you accept that the happier you'll be.

Best of this week

Bungie has the control to choose what xur sells and when. i.e heavy synthesis. They want us to spend more time in their game farming for glimmer, instead of buying 300 synths and playing the game once a week for raids. Xur is not RNG, bungie is a business, and have strategic ways to keep us playing.

So half life 3 confirmed?

To the writer of the post. I'm sure you some craic out on the piss. FFS its a game, but well done on writing the most boring thing to date I've had the miss pleasure on these forums. On a lighter note.....http://youtu.be/8xX3JIpUQ4k

Xûr is not RNG. Please explain how he sells DLC weapons nearly every week. They are pushing the dlc down people's throats. Activi$ion

Gamblers fallacy huh? Here's some gamblers reality: If you were at a casino in Reno NV and and could correctly pick the right number on the roulette table with the same frequency that Xur brings the same ole shit to the tower, the pit boss would snatch your ass up, drag you in the back room, and tell his boys to start plucking those toes off until you told them how you were cheating. Focusing on the little stuff, the microscopic view of statistics, keeps us from seeing things in a wider lense. It's a lot simpler than it seems usually. It's ok man, I lose sight of the big picture sometimes too...

There's so much wrong with your explanation, but whatever

there is a difference between evaluating odds of chained events and evaluating odds of single event. the odd of predicting the result of 30 coin draw isn't 1/2 but 1/2^30. each coin flip is indeed independent but some chains of events are more unlikely than other.. 5 gjalla in a raw has less chance of happening than 5 different weapon in a raw.

Much words wow

You cannot know the weighted constraints modifying the RNG. The game changes constantly and the chance that the constraints change is also in flux. Assumption 1: this is not a generic RNG Assumption 2: Those values can be manipulated based on the current content. i.e. you could not get the Dragon's Breath before The Dark Below. Now we have it, so there is a possibility that it has a better chance to appear. Think D&D loot tables with the rare stuff on 1 and 100 roles.

I will make use two points to make two separate arguments, Point #1 - Clustering. Look at the Warlock armor section of Xur's inventory in the past. Some data points: Over the course of 10 weeks Xur sold Voidfang Vestments 7 times. Over the course of the first 4 weeks Xur sold Sunbreakers 3 times Over the last 5 weeks, Xur has sold Starfire Protocol 4 times. Titan armor: Over 7 weeks Xur sold Armamentarium 5 times In the last 5 weeks Xur has sold Ruin Wings 3 times Hunter armor No real clustering Engram: Over 8 weeks Xur sold the Helmet Engram 6 times, including 4 in a row. Weapons: In weeks 16 and 17 Xur sold No Land Beyond followed by Dragons breath, he did the same thing in weeks 20 and 21 Point #2 - Repeating the exact same inventory: In weeks 17 and now 21 Xur has sold the exact same inventory of Armor, Weapon and Engram. These two points lead me to one of two conclusions. Conclusion #1 - Xur is RNG after all, either being weighted, poor, or not based on player-visible criteria. A, - That the RNG that determines Xur's inventory is weighted, with particular items having a significantly higher chance of appearing each week. B, - That the RNG that determines Xur inventory is just plain bad. To stick to that degree and repeat itself entirely is the a hallmark of poor programing, which is unusual coming from BUNGiE. C, - That the RNG which determines Xur's inventory is based on some limiting factors that we cannot see, for example being restricted to items which are not currently equipped by x% of the section of the playerbase whom have an exotic equipped. Or #2, that Xur is not RNG at all, except in the sense that peeps over at BUNGiE sit at a table and say "hey, what exotics do we want our players to equip?"