Hopefully this will put this to bed (though not the question of whether Xur is random or not). There are 6 types of armor, as you said. Vestments, Praxic Fire, Nemesis, Veil, Ahamkaras Skull, Sunbreakers. You are correct that the odds that 6 straight Vestments is 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 So let's pretend it went PF, then Nemesis, then Skull, then Vestments, then Veil, then PF. What are the odds? The same 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6. No matter what 6 events, the odds that those 6 occur in that order is 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6. So your proof applies to anything he might've sold over 6 weeks. IOW, flipping a coin 3 times, it is equally unlikely it goes HHH as TTT as HTH or HHT, THT, or THH. Each of those are equally improbable. And one of those sequences has to happen. So whatever result you get flipping a coin three times, it was .5*.5*.5 to have the outcome over those three trials no matter what happened. This is why you cannot look at a random sample of 6 events. It's called variance. If something has a 10% chance of happening, it doesn't mean that in 10 attempts, it will happen once. It might happen every time ten times,, then not again over 500 attempts, but it will approach 10% the more trials. The difference between the results of the trials and the probability is shouldbe over infinite trials is called standard deviation. This gets people who play the lottery all the time. It is equally likely that 1111111 will get drawn as any other sequence of 6 numbers. But people don't think so. What you have proved is that any particular sequence of items for sale by Xur over 6 weeks is really unlikely.