I say let them. Assad is going to win anyway (Thank god)

In some areas, especially northern Syria, Assad isn't winning.

The number of battles won does not equal winning a war

No, I'm talking about how almost the entirety of [url=http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/13/world/middleeast/a-snapshot-of-the-dispute-in-syria.html?_r=0]northern Syria[/url] being under opposition control. In and around Aleppo is where it gets tricky, as well as near Syrian Kurdistan.

True that is a problem for assad. But the question is who can be pushed out. I feel like the alawites and maybe the other minorities as well as the kurd will somehow end up pushing the opposition out. Remember the opposition are already fracturing due to ideological differences.

The way I see it there are a few scenarios. 1: Assad and co. win in the west. This would effectively push back the rebels to their strongholds in the north. With continual pressure, the regime forces and their allies could slowly retake ground in the north and push the opposition even further back near Kurdish territory. Here is where it gets tricky. The Kurds are really fighting for their own survival and for their own interests. One side would have to strike a deal with the Kurds to get them on their side. It would be more beneficial for Assad to agree to let the Kurds have some levels of autonomy in return for helping to finally defeat the opposition. This wouldn't be too much of a long-shot since the Kurds are fighting the opposition more so than regime forces recently. 2: Like the first scenario, Assad and co. win the west and then proceed into the north. Unlike the first scenario, they do not strike a deal with the Kurds. So, instead of stopping at Syrian Kurdistan, they continue to push forward retaking the entirety of Syria. However, this comes at the risk of involving the entirety of the Kurdish population. 3: With Arab and Western support, the rebels overtake strategic neighborhoods and roads in and around cities like in between Homs and Damascus. This would cripple both supplies and fighters coming from the strongholds of Tartus and Latakia. Mixed in with overtaking the airport in Damascus, the opposition would be on the upper hand. With enough time and resources, they could overtake Dara'a and begin to heavily focus on Damascus. You could even see a rebel advance in the north towards Latakia at this point in the scenario. 4. This one plays into the third scenario. Assuming all this happens and they mount large offensives on Damascus, eventually regime forces would begin to fall apart. Without the strategic road in between Homs and Damascus, the regime cannot get important supplies from the north. Plus, without that airport and without Dara'a, it would be pretty damn hard for Iran to fly in fresh troops and ammo. One problem would be containing Hezbollah, but I'd imagine some support could be stifled from increased Western sanctions on both Iran and Hezbollah and their assets. On the chance that this actually occurs and large portions of Damascus are under rebel control, a few things could potentially happen: a. Assad agrees to make a political settlement involving the opposition in the process. b. Assad stays and continues the fight until his demise. c. Assad relocates to the Alawite stronghold of Latakia. 5. With Damascus largely controlled, the opposition would then start to mount offensives of the northwestern part of Syria. This part of Syria is, of course, the homeland of the Alawites. The thinking here would be to crush the morale of regime supporters and bring about a swift end to this stage of the civil war. What happens in post-Assad Syria is a whole new list of possible scenarios. The way I see it anyway.

I see all your scenarios just wondering have any data on divide within the rebels. Cause i heard that was becomming a problem.

[url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2013/1018/Weapons-fighters-flow-to-Syria-s-next-battlefront-as-offensive-looms]Looks like a major battle is getting ready to happen in the Qalamoun region of Syria[/url]. I'm pointing this out because it plays into my scenario #3.

I don't have any statistics or anything regarding opposition infighting. However, it seems like most are between groups like Jabhat al-Nusra or ISIS and smaller secular or Islamist groups. There are even some reports of Jabhat al-Nusra fighting ISIS, as well. These two groups, both being al-Qaeda affiliates, tend to put aside differences for the greater 'good' more often than continue to fight. You might wanna look through [url=http://www.longwarjournal.org/tags/Syria/common/] here for instances regarding opposition infighting[/url].

Yeah. I just wonder how the public will support later on.

What do you mean?

I just who the public will support later on. It is still divided but slowly one group will get tired. It looks like that assad is slowly changing the peoples view. Especially with some questionable actions from the rebels.

I pointed out earlier and many times in the past about the major PR campaign al-Qaeda is involved in with the cites and towns they control. Both sides are engaged in trying to sway public support. In all honesty, I don't see Assad remaining in power; as a result, I am worried about which opposition groups are trying to sway the public. I've made numerous posts about this and I don't really want to repeat myself. I'll try to find it if you want. [quote]Especially with some questionable actions from the rebels.[/quote]Both sides are guilty of committing "questionable actions". Warning: Video is graphic [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPANw2LggE8&feature=youtu.be&oref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DUPANw2LggE8%26feature%3Dyoutu.be&has_verified=1]Regime forces killing wounded rebels[/url]

Yes its true but over long term people get tired and may choose the safer choice. For assad all he needs to show is mercy. The proganda war true was the rebel victory early on but slowly assad is gaining on them. Also sanctions on iran are hard to see with the warming relations between iran and us. For me assad has started to win ground back and is slowly pushing the rebels back.

[quote]Also sanctions on iran are hard to see with the warming relations between iran and us.[/quote]I wouldn't be too optimistic about Rouhani, but that's a separate thread (that I've already made). [quote]For me assad has started to win ground back and is slowly pushing the rebels back.[/quote]That depends where you're looking at.

True but that will have an opposite effect. As one would notice money will not gelp you win in this war. Also who they are funding are not that great compared to hezbollah who are in the region and threw the opposition heavily back. Remeber the opposition is fighting against an army backed by russia. Alsothe army usually made of alawites are now fighting for survival. I believe i posted a link yesterday that showed the city of yabroud and how they are holding out against the opposition. Also one important group we forget are the kurds.

[quote]True but that will have an opposite effect.[/quote]It depends on what effect they're trying to go for. Are they legitimately trying to make an opposition group greater than the main one? Are they just trying to outdo us? Are they just trying to get back at us? Are they seriously trying to turn the tide of the war? These are all questions that need to be answered before we starting diving into what will happen. [quote]As one would notice money will not gelp you win in this war.[/quote]Actually, money plays a significant part into why some opposition groups are doing better than others. Groups like Jabhat al-Nusra or ISIS are able to be successful both in military operations and massive PR campaigns because of their funding from Muslims sympathetic to their cause. With this money, they are able to not only have good weapons and sufficient ammo, but also the ability to provide humanitarian services to the various cities and villages they control. For instance, they are actually providing sanitation and electrical services to these cities and villages. This helps garner a better image for the groups, even though these two groups are al-Qaeda's affiliates within Syria. Smaller groups do not have this ability because they lack the funding. Money is key to the opposition. [quote]Also who they are funding are not that great compared to hezbollah who are in the region and threw the opposition heavily back.[/quote]In southern Syria, yes. But not in various areas in and around Damascus, Aleppo, and huge swaths of northern Syria. The point of them funding this group goes back to the questions posed above. [quote]Also one important group we forget are the kurds.[/quote]I agree. But Saudi won't fund Kurdish groups unless they support their interests.