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Edited by Caraweezey: 8/9/2014 12:04:35 AM
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Math for Guardians update 3

The current population on Earth right now is estimated to 7 billion people. Ratio of civilian to military in (us) for example is about 5 military per 1000 civilians. If the Fallen, Hive, Vex, and Canbal all have a Earth size population, share a similar warrior to civilian ratio as the US. Then that would mean each enemy race would have 7million fighters for a total combined force of 28 million. Let's say they deployed 70% of their total force to destroy humanity in a surprise attack and left 30% to defend their home base the total attacking enemy force would be around 19.6million. There were a total of 4.6 million guardians in the BETA (not counting 6.5mil guardians because one player cannot control multiple guardians at one time) All guardians won't be present to defend the tower/last safe city. If the guardians were divided equally among 24 time zones and we take into account 8hr sleep and 8hr other activities for a total of 16hr time zones worth of guardians out of pocket. That would mean only 1.5 million guardians can possibly be present to defend this surprise attack. Each guardians quota will be 13 enemy combatants. Easy but there are spider tanks and bosses as well. On a rough estimate let's say for every 300 enemy troops we have 1boss and 1 tank type that would mean we have to deal with 130,666 combined force of tanks and bosses. Your chances of encountering a boss 8%. This is a cake walk but numbers lie.....Now if they have no such thing as a civilian population and decided to use their entire population to attack all 28 billion of them. We still only have the 1.5 million guardians...that would mean each guardians would have to deal with 18,666 enemy warriors divided into waves within enemy ranks would include 124 bosses and tanks that EACH individual guardians have to fight off to protect humanity...in the course of maybe around 3 hours....then we are screwed. Edit:1) number of guardians have been adjusted for accuracy Edit:2) there are some very good responses to this forum that encourages critical thinking in many aspects of Destiny. If you have created a new forum discussing these types of topics please let me know. Edit:3)To clarify this is waves after waves pounding the tower that EACH guardian (1) has to handle in one session: probably some where around 2 hours or 3

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  • Edited by xXPRo-PRoDiiGYXx: 10/15/2014 10:50:20 PM
    But couldn't we launch a select group of guardians to attack the remaining 30% at their home bases? Forcing the remaining of the 70% to retreat? Wasn't this attic used by the Romans against Hannibal. Leading to saving the tower.

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  • It would be tuff, for sure, but think of the loot between waves!

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  • WHAT DOES MATH HAVE TO DO WITH NUMBERS??

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  • I don't think they would launch a coordinated surprise attack by all races at once.

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  • im up for the 1 v 18666 and 124 bosses

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    • People call the vex time traveling robots, if they can time travel then they can go back to before the guardians were established and destroy everything.

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      • But we have supers. +1 for the good guys

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      • Too many assumptions to be accurate by any means. Biggest one being the population size of the other races, the strength of each guardian in skill and level. Also military deployment would never send out 70% of combined forces, not "Earthly" commanders anyways, so combat technique is another assumption. Also you forgot to include our vehicles such as sparrows and interceptors. Sorry if I took the fun out of your math though =(

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        • Golden Gun and Keyhole. For all we know that shot will continue to penetrate until it hits the invisible wall... Line them up!

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          • You forgot that if the tower is attacked The Speaker would call every single guardian to defend the tower, and the guardians are the elite fighting force. I'm sure there are police in the city, as well as a basic military with would be used to support the guardians. That would increase the friendly numbers from 1.5 million to maybe 5 million if civilians don't fight too. I would assume that most would help. Increasing our numbers to roughly 7 million. Using your math that would leave 4,000 hostiles per 1 friendly. Assuming that a civilian could only kill two dregs or their equivalent before dying that would change the numbers to 27,998,000,000 H to 5,000,000 F. Now a cop would be able to eliminate maybe 10 dregs, and a Vandal or the equivalents. 400,000 'cops/soldiers' dead 4,400,000 hostiles down. Now we're left with 27,993,600,000 H to 4,600,000 Guardians. Roughly. Now using what your logic the 1.5 million guardians would face the blunt force of the enemy attack. Personally I was able to kill about 5,000 enemies, I would assume that a well trained Guardian, maybe a vanguard could take out 7,500 if properly equipped. That would mean we could kill 11.25 billion agents of darkness. Leaving them with 16.743 billion troops to fight off our incoming 3.1 million guardians. At this point each guardian would only need to kill 5,401 Darkspawns to win the battle. One would have to kill 5,402. It would be a very close battle, that would decimate everyone, but I'm sure we'll come out on top after hours, maybe days of battle. If all guardians become vanguards though we would decimate the darkness.

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            • You need to get laid kid...

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              • 1
                This is hundreds of years in the future, why are you applying current earth population?

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                • Edited by Thunda_Punk: 8/9/2014 5:30:38 AM
                  Well, The Speaker did say we wouldn't survive the darkness this time. On the other hand it's a good thing our enemies hate each other just as much as they hate us. I would cross my fingers that along the ambush at least the fallen and hive would have a falling out.

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                • You must be those students that I have who really like math and bombard me in class with all sorts of questions. [i]Proud member of the clan causing a sensation [url=http://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/67123219/0/0] THE GRIMGUARD[/url] .[/i]

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                • Math... Nope

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                • No need to guard all time zones. Concentrate defenses on the Tower and the nearby options of Old Russia, especially where they could breach the wall. Problem solved. A fortified defensive line is much easier to guard than one thats spread that thinly.

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                • Impossible for the full force to attack many of them are also at war so the (ball parking this number) we'd have to face considering they all showed up at once is around 20 million they'd need to used the majority of all other forces to fight one another

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                • Never tell me the odds

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                  • Awesome, thread, really helps to show what the guardians are really up against

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                  • Is this surprise attack all enemies at once. Because if so I can't see this happening with all the different rivalries between enemies.

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                    • Also keep in mind that if the tower were attacked full force... I don't care who you are. If you're physically able to hold a rifle, carry ammo, move wounded, etc...congrats, you have a new job. IMHO, literally the only people not allowed to fight would be the infirm, and those physically unable to do anything.

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                    • [quote]The current population on Earth right now is estimated to 7 billion people. Ratio of civilian to military in (us) for example is about 5 military per 1000 civilians. If the Fallen, Hive, Vex, and Canbal all have a Earth size population, share a similar warrior to civilian ratio as the US. Then that would mean each enemy race would have 7million fighters for a total combined force of 28 million. Let's say they deployed 70% of their total force to destroy humanity in a surprise attack and left 30% to defend their home base the total attacking enemy force would be around 19.6million. There were a total of 4.6 million guardians in the BETA (not counting 6.5mil guardians because one player cannot control multiple guardians at one time) All guardians won't be present to defend the tower/last safe city. If the guardians were divided equally among 24 time zones and we take into account 8hr sleep and 8hr other activities for a total of 16hr time zones worth of guardians out of pocket. That would mean only 1.5 million guardians can possibly be present to defend this surprise attack. Each guardians quota will be 13 enemy combatants. Easy but there are spider tanks and bosses as well. On a rough estimate let's say for every 300 enemy troops we have 1boss and 1 tank type that would mean we have to deal with 130,666 combined force of tanks and bosses. Your chances of encountering a boss 8%. This is a cake walk but numbers lie.....Now if they have no such thing as a civilian population and decided to use their entire population to attack all 28 billion of them. We still only have the 1.5 million guardians...that would mean each guardians would have to deal with 18,666 enemy warriors divided into waves within enemy ranks would include 124 bosses and tanks that EACH individual guardians have to fight off to protect humanity...in the course of maybe around 3 hours....then we are screwed. Edit:1) number of guardians have been adjusted for accuracy Edit:2) there are some very good responses to this forum that encourages critical thinking in many aspects of Destiny. If you have created a new forum discussing these types of topics please let me know. Edit:3)To clarify this is waves after waves pounding the tower that EACH guardian (1) has to handle in one session: probably some where around 2 hours or 3[/quote] I feel like the only reason that guardians can be revived by ghosts endlessly is because its a video game and they had to weave it into the story how your character comes back to life after getting killed. If every guardian can be endlessly revived then what's the point of doing all the math. We have infinite numbers so these enemy could never win. That being said, if guardians couldnt be revived most guardians would have been dead after like 200 enemies, so I agree that we would be screwed. Also the aliens fought each other so that's another thing to take into account

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                      • TL;DR you tard

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                        • Edited by UM xReb: 8/9/2014 1:08:44 AM
                          The scenario ignores the fact that most military members are not soldiers. Service members are commonly found in specialties that support those fighting our wars. Finance, vehicle/aircraft maintenance, linguistics, etc. I think it's safe to assume that the enemy forces in Destiny would have a fairly similar setup. I guarantee you that those Fallen ships require a very large number of maintenance personnel to keep it combat capable. Based on this assumption, an attack on Earth of this scale is not possible.

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                          • I killed thousands just in the beta, what do you think I'm gonna do at release? -blam!- MOTHERING GENOCIDE

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                          • Edited by Spartan: 8/9/2014 12:45:50 AM
                            You also have to take into account our own heavy weapons/vehicles that would be present. I know the tower alone is loaded with some heavy AA guns that could greatly reduce the enemy forces far quicker than any single guardian could. It's also currently unknown what vehicles we have access to other than sparrows, but I imagine we would have to have something that could be useful. As for Devil Walkers you have to keep in mind their low mobility and limitations due to terrain. The assault would most likely begin outside the city (the Traveler must provide some protection that prevents immediate infiltration/heavy artillery/ICBMs), so Devil Walkers may only be useful in the initial barrage. Also, we would receive reinforcements at some point relatively soon after the fighting began, because even if there were only 1.5 million guardians on shift, the rest would be rallied as soon as an immediate threat was detected. However, the 1.5 million may be a bit high for the initial assault if you base it on the stat that guardians only spend about 20% of their time at the tower. That would probably lead to only 600k-750k guardians in the tower ready to fight at any one time, with 1.5M who would be sleeping and would be ready shortly.

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