The more I think about it the more I start to tell myself that the UNSC, and not the Covenant, won the war in space in the end.
Yes I know it took three or four UNSC ships to destroy one Covenant ship, but overall I still think the UNSC had many major wins. The Unyielding Elephant, destruction of High Charity, the gas planet Admiral Cole nuked to cook the Covenant fleet in orbit, etc.... I really can't remember a time when the UNSC lost at least 150 ships or more in a single battle....
So overall, even though the Covenant won almost every engagement, when you add in Unyielding Elephant(500+ ships), High Charity (1000+ ships) and the fleet destroyed near the gas planet (300 ships) it looks like the covies lost a lot more in space than Humanity did.
Discuss.
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DAMN YOU FOR THAT TV TROPES LINK! OT: I think the Covenant were a bit played up with the overall feeling of hopelessness. They make it seem like the war was swift and bloody, when really it was a lot of waiting for the Covies to find another planet to 'splode. The Covenant had the technological advantage, certainly. The only reason the humans had a chance was because of the NOVA bomb. It basically took out half the Elites, so they were forced to shack up with humanity if they wanted to defeat the Prophets and Brutes. This joining of forces helped deal with Truth at Earth, and later the Battle at the Ark. Luckily, the majority of the Loyalists were at the Ark, where the now decimated allies were headed, but still helping to keep the heat off of Earth. They managed to have a Mock Guffin scenario where they blew up the entrenched Loyalists who were trying to activate the Ark. Overall, humanity won, but by the tiniest sliver of luck. If the NOVA hadn't been a thing, then the Elites would have had a massive fleet and plenty of soldiers to eliminate the Prophets and the humans. Perhaps they might fall in the end to the Loyalists, but that never occurred so we will never know.