原先發佈於:Sapphire
檢視完整主題
[quote]A French-led military operation to protect civilians in the Central African Republic is being launched "immediately", after scores died in fresh sectarian fighting on Thursday.
A contingent of 650 troops there will be "doubled within a few days, if not a few hours," President Hollande said.
Earlier the UN Security Council voted to allow French troops to join an African peacekeeping force in the CAR.
Violence there has raised fears of mass killings along sectarian lines.[/quote]
This is quite interesting, to say the least. The conflict in CAR is becoming more sectarian, more violent and the UN even said that [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24800682]the conflict is on the verge of genocide[/url].
Being that the conflict is primarily stemming from violence between the Christian majority and the Muslim minority, I worry about how Islamic terrorist organizations (primarily Boko Haram and/or al-Shabaab, which are two al-Qaeda affiliates) are going to handle this conflict. In fact, it is being reported that Boko Haram is [url=http://www.voanews.com/content/lawless-car-attracting-terrorists-attention/1795564.html]already active in CAR[/url]. Admittedly, I really don't know too much about CAR, but I do know that they have large diamond and gold reserves. These are two resources that would easily be able to fund any terrorist activity.
In my opinion, given the US's and France's recent attention to African terrorism, I am very interested into how this situation is going to play out. This is, of course, not to downplay the growing humanitarian crisis in the country.
What do you guys think about France sending more troops to Africa? Any opinions or views on the recent, disturbing trend of violence going on in Central African Republic right now? Any thoughts on how the increasing chaos and sectarian divisions could lead to another terrorism hotspot?
-
由Diplomat編輯: 12/8/2013 3:14:45 AMHere's what I think: The French are not looking to change the status quo by itself. It's quite obvious that they have no intention of conducting large scale operations inside the Central African Republic. This is going to probably be a significantly different operation than Mali, where they mostly returned stability to the country by routing terrorist entities like Al-Qeada and the Tuareg back into their pre-intervention enclaves. Mali was in many respects a damage control mission following the spillover from Libya. Following the collapse of Gadhaffi, arms caches were seized and disseminated across the continent and surrounding region. Many of these weapons happened to fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda, which formed an alliance with the Tuareg and launched a major offensive in in the country. The internal situation is far more complex and difficult when compared to Mali. France already had significant [url=http://www.everyculture.com/Ja-Ma/Mali.html#b]cultural, linguistic, and historical connections with Mali,[/url] the pillar upon which success in the country rested upon. These factors are much less prevalent in the Central African Republic (to my immediate knowledge). France doesn't want to see the Central African Republic become a failed state for two reasons. First, there would probably be a large influx of immigrants into surrounding nations. Mass immigration stemming from conflict is an extremely large but non-talked about threat to many nations globally. More immigrants=more instability. Second, there is the potential for the CAR to become a major breeding ground for jihadists. That's not good for anybody, especially neighboring countries which are most susceptible to spillover. Africa is the world's last major economic frontier. Nations around the globe have been pouring investment money into struggling nations, with the hopes of long term economic payouts. The [url=http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Africa/0513pp_franceafrica.pdf]French[/url] have [url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/101245584]especially[/url] invested into [url=http://www.theforeignreport.com/2013/02/06/mali-why-france-is-fighting-for-west-africa/]West Africa[/url], where nations [url=http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/english/2013/07/west-africa-sub-region-faces-multiple-political-and-security-challenges-srsg-djinnit/]homogeneously[/url] face many of the same problems. Chief among these problems are radicalism and sectarian, religious, and ethic conflict (as well as transnational crime). Thusly, what happens in one nation tends to spill over into other nations. By stabilizing the capital, thus decreasing the likelihood of the nation utterly collapsing, they are mitigating the affects of instability in the nation. And even while the CAR is not in West Africa, it is in the middle of an [url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/us-safrica-france-idUSBRE99D0BS20131014]arc of instability[/url] which threatens more regional conflict. Finally, it seems as if [url=http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/12/7/more-french-troopsdeployasclashescontinueincentralafricanrepubli.html]French[/url] leadership has preceded African impetus in forming an intervention task force. This is reminiscent of Libya, where French leadership ultimately led to NATO intervention. As for U.S. support, it seems as if the French are doing well on their own. We'll probably offer our strategic airlift capability, as will the British. I doubt the Canadians will be significantly involved. Given that UN missions are payed for by first world nations, but fought by third world hellholes, my guess is that future international involvement will in involve Bangladeshi/Indian/Pakistani/another large UN contributor.