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由Dragon029編輯: 12/5/2013 10:46:08 AM
25

Fusion around the corner? Global change on the horizon?

[quote][b]tl;dr at the bottom![/b][/quote] Quick overview of what I'm talking about: Lockheed Martin's has a famous division called the Skunk Works. In the past they've brought the world the SR-71, U-2, F-117, F-22 and many other projects. They are arguably the most advanced and secretive engineering / scientific design firm in the world. Nuclear fusion; fusing 2 atoms together until they become a single larger atom, releasing energy in the process. The main 2 methods of doing this (for energy production) are: Inertial confinement - using many lasers to blast a capsule of fuel so evenly and powerfully that it implodes and fuses. Progress: NIF is making milestones, but still far from close to breaking even in energy-in/out. ETA ~2050. Magnetic confinement - put plasma in a magnetic donut (or sphere), squeeze the plasma with the magnetic field until it fuses. Progress: ITER making milestones, but costly; test facility to be built in the coming decades; break-even expected by about 2040 or 2050. A facility would be roughly the size of a football field, as the larger it is, the more efficient it is. --- In the video above, we see a spokesperson from Skunk Works. They're making a statement; they have been working on a new form of magnetic confinement, one that doesn't need to be massive (it can fit on the back of a semi-trailer), and is vastly more stable and efficient than the current record. [b]They say they can have a production model running by 2017...[/b] [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_beta_fusion_reactor]Here's a link to the Wiki article, listing their claimed innovations / advances.[/url] To reiterate; Skunk Works don't really kid around; they don't particularly need a customer, they're pretty much in bed with the US government; the F-35 program alone is worth roughly a trillion dollars. As far as credentials go, they have them (also, for the record, Lockheed does a lot more than just aircraft; they do power systems, communications, etc). Using a very rough economic model, they say they / the licensed contractors of their generator / tech could provide the entire globe's minimum power requirements (aka, provide power to the entire planet, including an energised Africa) by around 2050. Yes that's fairly idealistic, but compare that to current projects that intend to have their first [i]working[/i] reactors by 2050... Also, food for though: in any business, you evaluate projects like this for their business and political impacts. This has the potential to revolutionise / overthrow the entire globe's energy system. Very powerful people, both in Lockheed and those they associate with (government officials) are making a powerful statement by allowing this to go public. I don't know about you, but I see that as a trump card being provided in respect to certain rising / returning powers... [b]tl;dr:[/b] Current nuclear fusion isn't due to start until 2050. Lockheed is offering commercial fusion by 2017 (they were working on it in secret and have made massive advances). This will overthrow energy companies & economies if pursued, so why have Lockheed gone public with it? Why is the government (who are very much associated with Lockheed) allowing this to go ahead? The answers aren't hard to guess, but it raises many interesting thoughts.

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  • Apparently Skunk is in bed with the US government. I take it that they wanted to get to the stage where they couldn't be shutdown by other energy companies, and now they're looking to make a profit.

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  • I would love to see the US government sink a dagger in big oil. That is a cancerous industry that needs to die. Renewable energy and fusion would have MASSIVE effects on the world and they would almost all be for the better. My only issue with skunk works like programs is the secrecy, I understand the need for secrecy but it wouldn't exist in a demilitarized world. IF we can reduce standing armies and focus purely on research and industry applications, technology will be developed much faster and would be available to the public much more quickly.

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  • Magnetic-Electric energy is also a good source. However it is insanely dangerous on so many levels, you could kill millions in an instant with no explosions or gas. It would be just as if people dropped dead randomly.

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    • This doesn't use Helium-3, I hope. Does it?

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      • I think the one thing to point out about D-T (deuterium-tritium) fusion is that it does require a source of tritium, which means a nuclear reactor like various other isotopes used for medical purposes. You can use other methods for fusion, but D-T has the highest energy density that I know of along with producing neutron radiation. (and thus requiring a sizeable amount of water for neutron shielding, producing deuterium as a by product) Plenty of issues with long term fusion, though it's still the best source of energy anyone has come up with beyond vague theories about how to use zero point energy.

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      • Next we need to be able to distill/purify large quantities of water and we will be set for a couple million years until the suns outer layer expands to the point the earth starts getting hotter. Then figure out how to fix that.

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        • Find out on the next episode of DRAGON BALL Z!

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          • 由Euler編輯: 12/6/2013 4:09:59 PM
            Halfway through the video I noticed that it stated that we could achieve a plentiful water supply - presumably via distillation/reverse osmosis given enough clean energy. This will have major implications on the future zeitgeist of the world - ending or reducing the scale of energy and water monopolies by certain corporations and countries will obviously have a positive effect on your average western consumer (you shouldn't be able to artificially restrict the supply of H isotopes to drive up the price of energy as we can get deuterium from seawater, thus eliminating a potential source of future inflation shocks) as well as end the exploitation of the er, exploited. This could also defuse tensions in China, India, Africa and the like over the supply of drinking water - and prove a major boon to a dangerously overcrowded world. As the OP said, Skunkworks/Lockheed and the US Government are very much throwing down the gauntlet to certain parties - hopefully the establish energy companies don't try to fight tooth and nail to retain their market power - we could be seeing horribly long wait times for vital legislation, etc. if they do... The only question over the sustainability of this is the supply of lithium to generate the tritium required - if I recall, something like 80% of the world's accessible lithium deposits are found in the imaginatively named 'Lithium Triangle' between Argentina, Chile and Bolivia (I think) - a possible new Middle East for fusion? I'm not especially sure about the numbers of either - but does the energy density of lithium render the supply of lithium a non-issue? - I might ask this later on r/Askscience, but I would be interested if anyone on this site knows.

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          • [quote]F-35 program alone is worth roughly a trillion dollars. [/quote] F-35 was a DISASTER. The ideas are really cool but it is plagued with technical issues. Companies like Raytheon and other contractors are on the absolute bleeding edge of computation, aerospace and energy technology. I would be disgusted with myself if I was building fighter jets or the like but if I do decide to pursue a degree in nuclear physics or engineering, it would be really cool to develop some of the technologies these companies work on, for the betterment of everyone.

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            • 由The Great DanTej編輯: 12/6/2013 1:51:55 AM
              I'm starting to think i'll see a post scarcity civilization in my life time - we could do a lot with infinite energy, and that's sort of what we'll be getting with this.

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              • 2
                Despite the modern world being a rather shitty place, stuff like this makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. If we get fusion reactors by 2017... Well, the future looks a lot brighter. Imagine if the USA didn't need to swing it's bulk around protecting the Oil... The middle east would suddenly lose a lot of strategic interest and might be able to finally sort it's shit out when the west stops interfering. Now all we need is to make Fabricators out of 3D printers and the future is today :D or just around the corner <.<

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                • What's the difference between fission and fusion? And why aren't we using fusion for energy?

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                  • We should use it to power that FTL engine NASA is working on

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                    • Today fusion tomorrow manbearpig

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                    • I never understand those global electricity estimates. We can do this currently with fission, but it's not trusted by the public. Fusion is better, but why would society suddenly wise up about the safety of nuclear power?

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                      • 開啟新主題: In regards to nuclear paranoia(5 回覆))

                      • We've already created artificial cold fusion, the hard part is sustaining the reaction.

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                        • 1
                          France is attempting a net even reactor by 2019 and hope to have a positive one by 2029. It will certainly change the world if we don't kill ourselves off first. Imagine limitless energy. We would enter the Age of Abundance where even monetary systems are obsolete.

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                          • I don't see fusion coming around anytime soon, not that I'm well informed on what anyone is doing. It'll certainly be cool when we achieve it though

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                            • Fusion Frenzy 2 sucked. they should just stop.

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                            • But Metroid Fusion released 11 years ago.

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                              • 由Progo編輯: 12/5/2013 7:32:15 PM
                                I just wish we'd use thorium reactors for good ol' fission, it's more portable than fusion and has less harmful waste than current uranium fission*. (and cannot be weaponized) -My cousin who is currently driving a nuclear sub somewhere in the Atlantic. *Just realized my typo, oops.

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                                • Based fusion is closer than we think, all hail fusion.

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                                • The Polywell is a related concept being funded by the US Navy. Will sit and read about this when I get in. With fusion projects assume scepticism. We learn more and more about the complexities of fusion as we go on, but it will take a hell of a long time to get it to work.

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                                • I said this a while back, France is making it with international help such as funds, man power, scientists and resources from most of the international community. Then USA scientists proved fusion could generate more power than it uses and that it's a viable resource, so things are looking pretty good in the next 40- 50 years.

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