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原先發佈於：Sapphire
10/26/2013 7:22:07 PM
5
I still doubt it's the threat it's made out to be.
It's Iran's new toy. They're basically just saying to piss off [i]with[/i] the sanctions.
I still don't believe that it's to pose a significant threat to Israel, since the US would not hesitate to "act" upon such a threat. And the Iranians will know this.
I think the same of the North Korean arsenal. They're significantly more likely to deploy their warheads and chance that it's not sufficient to warrant nuclear retaliation, but it's probably a measure to have them taken more seriously and try and goad into the [i]lifting[/i] of sanctions.
Imposing further sanctions would only bring rhetoric that either country would be [i]willing[/i] to hold countries to threat or ransom.
English
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I've already explained to you why the threat of a nuclear Iran goes further than just being a threat to Israel. To suggest its only a bad thing for Israel, and to not look into the consequences of regional dynamics (as well as US influence in the region) would be asinine.
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由Mags編輯： 10/27/2013 3:42:55 PMNo, there's actually a lot for them to gain by obtaining a nuclear weapon. Regional balance would shift in their favor, it would give them leverage when it comes to issues regarding the Gulf, their terrorist proxies would have a significant advantage, and it would be much, much easier for them to counter American influence in the region. Going further into the "terrorist proxies" sentence, Hezbollah, for example, would have a staunch leverage point over Israel if they wish to engage them again. For Israel to invade southern Lebanon again (or even launch a significant air campaign), they would have to think twice about the reaction not only from Hezbollah, but their Iranian handlers as well. For the most part, worrying about the reaction from Iran hasn't been a big issue for the Israelis in the past. But let's also look at regional balance here. Right now, it's sitting with the Sunni Gulf countries and that's because of their vast wealth and oil reserves, plus not being isolated from loads of markets in the world. But you have to look at these countries from a international relations standpoint in this scenario. They have no real hard power. Their ability to project force is minimal at best. The G.C.C's Peninsula Force is in no way able to launch an invasion of their own. They are limited to defensive measures on the Peninsula, itself. So, in essence, all the Gulf states have is soft power and a little bit of smart power (we, the US, play the role of the hard power in this context). If Iran were to obtain nuclear capabilities, there is nothing the Gulf states can do to counter their influence. The Gulf states worry about that, because half of them (UAE, Saudi, Kuwait) worry that with this new found power, Iran will take advantage of that to stir the pot, if you will, between the majority Sunni's and the minority Shia's in their countries. They worry that an Iranian-sponsored Shia uprising is all too possible. Plus, they also worry about the already increasing Iranian influence and activity throughout the region--i.e Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain. With US foreign policy in the region poised to protect the status quo, it would become much harder to obtain that with a nuclear Iran. Just looking specifically at our policy in the Gulf, a major reason we're there is to protect the Gulf's shipping from threats like Iran. A nuclear Iran would definitely up the ante in this situation. So, really, I'm not seeing how there is "little to gain".
