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論壇

原先發佈於:Sapphire
原先發佈於: Iraq War
3/11/2013 12:36:36 AM
13
I'd say so. You can't ignore the role it played in weakening extremist Islam as an international and global threat.
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  • [quote]I'd say so. You can't ignore the role it played in weakening extremist Islam as an international and global threat.[/quote] I disagree, actually. If anything, Iraq ruined American soft power, distracted us from the much needed war in Afghanistan, further incited islamist rage against the West, strengthened Al Qaeda's power in the country, prevented overarching geo-strategic/political designs and economically drained us. Furthermore, it played into A.Q. strategy, which was/is aimed at ruining American credibility and financially destabilizing us (Iraq did both). Now, we face a weakened United States that's in many ways having trouble containing A.Q. reemergence abroad. The mistake Bush made was that he pursued the war on terror as a military campaign instead of a socio-economic-political campaign. S-E-C seeks not just military capital, but political support as well. In hindsight (which is nice and bias), it's clear that we as a country should have launched an energetic political AND military campaign aimed at undermining terrorism abroad. The unfortunate fact of the matter is that Saddam barely worked with international terrorists, he worked with minor groups that mainly sought to harm Iranian interests.

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  • 由Mags編輯: 3/11/2013 11:08:36 PM
    [quote]strengthened Al Qaeda's power in the country[/quote]Post withdrawal, yes. From about 2006-2008, AQI was effectively shut down (for the most part) thanks to McChrystal's strategy.

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  • 由Diplomat編輯: 3/12/2013 1:39:45 AM
    [quote][quote]strengthened Al Qaeda's power in the country[/quote]Post withdrawal, yes. From about 2006-2008, AQI was effectively shut down (for the most part) thanks to McChrystal's strategy.[/quote] But they were never there to begin with, and as a result of the war, they gained a strong presence in the country. That was my point, if poorly communicated.

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  • Lol. See above. They were there, the war just allowed them to expand.

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  • [quote]Lol. See above. They were there, the war just allowed them to expand.[/quote] [quote]On April 29, 2007, former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet said on 60 Minutes, "We could never verify that there was any Iraqi authority, direction and control, complicity with al-Qaeda for 9/11 or any operational act against America, period."[/quote] [quote]No it didn't. The war just gave them an opportunity to expand. The predecessor to AQI was called al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, started in the 1990's by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. When the war started, he pledged allegiance to UBL; thus creating al-Qaeda in Iraq.[/quote] So in other words, Al-Qeada only came into Iraq AFTER the invasion, when a terrorist organization pledged allegiance to the group. So then, one can presume that if we hadn't invaded, the group never would have become involved with UBL in the first place, thereby denying A.Q. a strategic foothold in the country. In fact, the only involvement the A.Q. had in Iraq was minor, involving the backing of anti-Iraqi groups. However, it's hardly enough to be called a "presence".

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  • [quote]So in other words, Al-Qeada only came into Iraq AFTER the invasion, when a terrorist organization pledged allegiance to the group.[/quote]No. The direct predecessor to AQI, the one founded by Zarqawi, was active in Iraq before the invasion. Then you also had Ansar al-Islam, another AQ group, active in Iraq pre-Invasion. I didn't mention Ansar before, because, well to be honest, I completely forgot about them. [quote]So then, one can presume that if we hadn't invaded, the group never would have become involved with UBL in the first place, thereby denying A.Q. a strategic foothold in the country.[/quote]Tawhid al-Jihad would have never became AQI, more than likely. However, Ansar al-Islam could have expanded as they were the main AQ branch up until 2003. [quote]In fact, the only involvement the A.Q. had in Iraq was minor, involving the backing of anti-Iraqi groups. However, it's hardly enough to be called a "presence".[/quote]This is where Ansar came in. I apologize for forgetting about them (it would have made this a lot easier), but sh­it happens :).

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  • [quote]No. The direct predecessor to AQI, the one founded by Zarqawi, was active in Iraq before the invasion.[/quote] Yes, but he wasn't A.Q. at that point, and therefore you cannot count him as such in retrograde fashion. It's a logical fallacy, because you can only count people as being apart of an organization when they join, not before then. That's exactly why you cannot say that A.Q. had a presence in Iraq prior to the invasion, because the was no group allied with them prior to 2003 (except Ansar). For example, let's say I joined the military (well, I plan to...), and served in Okinawa. After I got out, my platoon mates and I decided to join the French Foreign Legion (America went to hell under Obama, go figure). By your line of reasoning, the FFL operated a platoon in Okinawa because we were the predecessors to an American platoon in the legion. I'm tired though, so i might be misunderstanding you. [quote]Then you also had Ansar al-Islam, another AQ group, active in Iraq pre-Invasion.[/quote] Yea, a Kurdish group, if I recall correctly. [quote]Tawhid al-Jihad would have never became AQI, more than likely. However, Ansar al-Islam could have expanded as they were the main AQ branch up until 2003.[/quote] Possibly, but Saddam had the Kurdistan locked down. It's unlikely that militants operating in the region would have been able to do so without the U.S. no fly zone and demilitarized zones in the surrounding areas. For this reason, I don't think they would have expanded outwards into the rest of the country. Granted, they might have managed virtual control over Iraqi (and possibly Iranian) Kurdistan. [quote]This is where Ansar came in. I apologize for forgetting about them (it would have made this a lot easier), but sh­it happens :).[/quote] IT'S NOT OKAY!!!!!!!!1111!!!!!! Anyways, I will give you A.Q. had some presence in the country, but I'm talking about strategic presence.

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  • [quote]Yes, but he wasn't A.Q. at that point...[/quote]There is debate as to whether or not he was a member of AQ before the invasion. We do know, for a fact, that he did meet Bin Laden in Afghanistan during the Soviet War. We also know he operated a training camp near Herat with Saif al-Adel's money, he started a different organization with Bin Laden's money, and we know he had links with Ansar al Islam. In my opinion, he was a member of AQ. [quote]Yea, a Kurdish group, if I recall correctly.[/quote]Yep. Which developed into AQ's Kurdish Battalions, but that's a different story. [quote]Anyways, I will give you A.Q. had some presence in the country, but I'm talking about strategic presence.[/quote]I'd say securing Kurdish alliances is strategic. Or, in the word's of Bush, "strategery".

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  • 由Diplomat編輯: 3/12/2013 2:54:11 PM
    [quote]I'd say securing Kurdish alliances is strategic. Or, in the word's of Bush, "strategery".[/quote] While Ansar was using Iraqi Kurdistan as staging point, their operational capacity was largely stunted. Their membership pre-invasion was very limited, upwards to between 300 and 500 people (who were mostly older vets of the Soviet-Afghan War). They were also vastly outnumbered by both the PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) and KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party). Therefore, AAI was never truly capable of getting support of the Kurdish people, and ended up being shunned by both sides of the Kurdish political spectrum. Moreover, the geographic position of Kurdistan makes it nearly impossible to project power globally, and regionally you are an impotent force because the Turkish, Iraqi, and Iranian militaries all prevent you from conducting operations in their respective countries, while the PUK and KDP prevent you from obtaining any sort of hegemony in Kurdistan (you know you're f--ked when the PUK and KDP both hate you). That's why I don't think A.Q. had a strategic presence in the country. I mean, let's be honest, A.Q. most likely has followers or supporters in every country. What defines that relationship as a "presence", in my opinion, is when they are capable of conducting substantial, meaningful operations. [quote]There is debate as to whether or not he was a member of AQ before the invasion. We do know, for a fact, that he did meet Bin Laden in Afghanistan during the Soviet War. We also know he operated a training camp near Herat with Saif al-Adel's money, he started a different organization with Bin Laden's money, and we know he had links with Ansar al Islam. In my opinion, he was a member of AQ. [/quote] Fair enough. Love our talks, btw ;)

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  • 由Mags編輯: 3/13/2013 2:25:34 AM
    First paragraph: Ansar did control some towns and villages. But, I get what you're saying. I guess our definition of "presence" differs. [quote](you know you're f--ked when the PUK and KDP both hate you)[/quote]Which is where AQ's Kurdish Battalions come in. They mostly attack both of those entities. Fun fact: There are some allegations that AQKB helps Iran when they do their thing against Kurds. I love our talks too :)

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  • It's strengthened extremist Islam in that area. Saddam was a secularist. Once we took him out and created that instability, terrorist fighters flocked to Iraq.

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  • The retardation is strong with this one.

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  • [quote]The retardation is strong with this one.[/quote] Actually, it's not. Al-Qeada strengthened it's presence in Iraq after the invasion

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