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2/27/2015 8:15:42 PM
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Typical strategy of theirs. They pull that shit when theyre feeling vulnerable, which they probably are right now because in many places (other than E. Ghouta) they're getting their asses handed to em
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I'm exaggerating a little but that is a strategy they employ. They like to deflect attention when they start to lose ground or face setbacks. When US started airstrikes in August they beheaded American journalists and posted the video. As the Kobane Op came to a close they posted the video of Jordan's pilot being burned alive and launched heavy raids around Mare'.
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由DB5編輯： 2/27/2015 9:42:30 PMExactly. Proclaiming caliphate was a double edged sword for them. The idea was to pull as many jihadists as possible to the organization (and some assert to keep IS from fracturing, more on that in a moment*), but the issue for them is that they need to hold ground -- that's a major prerequisite of a caliphate. Reverses in fortune, therefore, are deadly to the group, as jihadists will simply abandon ship or depose Baghdadi for being a weak Caliph (no matter that under his leadership the group has been enormously successful to this point). Chances are, it is collecting people to execute as Mosul starts to go down (assuming of course the city falls). *Going back to this statement on the declaration of caliphate, some analysts have written that the declaration was more or less forced upon Baghdadi. Given his and IS' ambition of restoring a caliphate, they have a mandate to proclaim one when the prerequisites are met. [i]Not[/i] doing so after meeting the qualifications would discredit Baghdadi.
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I read that they are actually expecting their numbers to decrease and that's when their messiah will arrive to lead them to victory. So I can see how that kind of thinking would encourage them never to abandon ship. Even when things are looking bad, they'll be expecting things to still work out.
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Yeah then there's that component, with the town of Dabiq and the armies of "Rome" n all that jazz. The ones [i]really[/i] drinking the punch won't flake with battlefield losses, but they're unlikely to attract many new fighters if the group starts really taking hits. Those fighters will probably go join Nusra or something (n -blam!- Harakat Hazm up)
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I hear ya. The worst of their slaughtering hasn't passed yet, as horrible as that sounds. They'll lash at everything as they start to crumble. Chances are, some iteration of the group will last for a while even if all their territory is liberated..they'll just go underground or otherwise dormant and sow the seeds of a return at an unspecified future date. That's why rebuilding and political inclusiveness (the former being virtually impossible at the moment due to the war) are so important.
