I think this would be fair for everyone! Yesterday, I did my 83rd run of Scourge of the Past with loot, and I have one attempt left this week. I've been using a 5% chance at raid exotics to calculate probabilities, but that's just hypothetical. Being in my 28th week attempting this, I really just wanna figure out what our chances are! I should add that I'm not even mad about it at this point. After talking with a clanmate, I've started enjoying the game much more by messing around with the loot that I have and doing goofy stuff with friends, instead of getting angry/frustrated that I don't have a couple pieces of gear. Its been a lot more fun recently, but that doesn't take away my curiosity! For example: if raid exotics have a 5% drop rate, no one completion influences the chance of getting it on another completion, and I've looted the final chest 83 times, then the probability of not getting Anarchy in 83 runs is 0.014159, or ~1.42 percent. However, this changes if the drop rate is lower, say, 2%, which would give me an 18.7% chance of not getting it in 83 runs. I really just want to know what I'm working with, and I think its only fair to the community if we at least have this knowledge.
Sorry dude i am having a fit with 41 or 42 full clears also all loot drops and still no anarchy, at this point it is the rarest weapon in the game for me . I really dont feel like doing it anymore. Good luck next week hope ya get it but im probally done lol