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작성자: ThePomegranate
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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23 답변작성자: The Smoker II 11/30/2014 3:44:13 AMIf you flip a coin a hundred times and it's heads every time the odds of it being heads on flip 101 is still 50/50. Every week when RNG spins it's a 1/6 chance of being any exotic regardless of what happened before. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSc4oLA9e8o Watch this video it very clearly illustrates why compound probability doesn't matter in independent events. The mistake many are making is known as the gambler's fallacy. The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players. source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy Edit: Wanted to clear up the confusion and show some why this is a common mistake.
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15 답변You flip a coin four times. Three times it's heads.. does the probability that the fourth toss is heads decrease because if the previous three results? No. There remains a 0.5 probability for both heads and tails. Similar reasoning should be used for voidfang vestments if you are to assume RnG. That being said, it is highly unlikely that it is RnG... Imagine throwing 100 heads in a row - common sense would tell us that other factors have influenced the toss. Interesting thread.
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5 답변If you flip a coin 1,000 times and it come up heads all 1,000 times, do you know what the probability of it landing of heads the 1,001st time? 50%. You're argument has some good math behind it but is ultimately invalid.
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1 답변The probability is the exact same as if he were to sell voidfang over and over or to never sell them at all. You can't account probability over a time period as it resets each week with your 0.1666 chance. It cannot gain nor lose probability of appearing week after week.
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OP have you applied these values to a Chi square test? I'm almost positive with 5 degrees of freedom and the proper calculations that one would easily find that this probability lies outside of the realm of chance. Obvious gear weighting applies, which could only be verified by Bungie themselves. /endargument
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Unless Bungie have weighted the probabilities of each available piece, so it could be 80% chance voidfang 15% chance sunbreakers 5% chance something else? That would give a 41% chance of getting the voidfang 4 weeks in a row
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It's not rng in fact, I believe bungie even said xur is not completely random. Or I think deej said idk. Also gjallahorn will never be sold again because bungie knows how OP that gun is lol. Also The odds are are extremely low for anything to be sold for four weeks on a row.
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1 답변I think theirs a flaw in their probability system. -that's why some xur items repeat often -often play the same strikes over and over -solar nightfall is extremely rare
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40 답변1/1296 so around 0.07716% (Done by a scientific calculator) So yea your right. Its almost impossible for that to occur through random chance. So weighting is a probability. To put it simpily though what the OP is trying to say.... Grab the closest dice to you and roll 3 four times in a row
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