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작성자: ThePomegranate
11/28/2014 8:00:41 PM
298
To everyone saying that Xur is Rng... He's not, and heres your proof.
The chances of him being Rng are astronomical.
The proof: Voidfang vestments
There are 6 types of armor exotics for the Warlock: 1/6 chance of getting the voidfangs, or roughly 16.66%
Now to get the probability of this happening 4 times in a row, we simply take 0.1666 (16.66% in its decimal form) and put it to the power of 4.
So what does 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 * 0.1666 get us: 0.0007703
Now converting 0.0007703 to a percent we get: 0.07703% chance (roughly) of getting the voidfang 4 WEEKS IN A ROW.
I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.
We can from this data assume that Xur is not RNG.
Conclusion: Bungie enjoys taking baths in the salty tears of Warlocks.
Edit: Well a few people seem to have a problem with my math, so if you do, would you mind posting something correct. Aswell as I did not take into account that some items may be weighted more then others.
Edit 2: In response to everyone saying that I was to quick to jump the gun that Xur is not RNG, well you are right, there is still a chance that it may of in fact happened, but i stand by the fact that there is a 0.07703% chance of this happening, so i assumed that this would not of happened.
Edit 3: Number 1: Yay look at us being all fancy and trending
Edit 4: Trying to maybe sleep but so many buzzing phone notifications
Edit 5: someone brought up the point that one of the multiple factors may be to decide between arms, chest, and helm, then decide between exotics which does make some sense for the sun-breakers incident.
but this brings the chances down even lower: around 0.01928125% chance
Edit 6: If anyone from bungie reads this would you be able to confirm or deny the randomness of Xur?
Edit 7: back from school
Edit 8: It has come to my attention that some people may be misunderstanding my work, I'm not saying the probability of him getting the voidfang this week is 0.077% I'm saying the probability that he were to sell Voidfang 4 weeks in a row is 0.077% (Assuming he sells all exotic armor, and that all are weighted evenly, which i either believe some are weighted more, or its pre-chosen!)
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5 답변Well it's obvious that xur isn't RNG because people can cheat the destiny servers and see what xur will have each week.
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1 답변작성자: Gladys Oroborus 11/29/2014 9:44:27 AMMath or no math, RNG or no RNG, Xûr is a douchebag with Warlocks... Titans and hunters had the opportunity since the launch to get various exotics from Xûr, but Warlocks... well, almost the same half of the six exotics available today... My clanmates and I are seriously thinking about kicking Xûr's strange ass, lifting him (it?) from the ground and shaking him like a coconut tree to see what'ss going to fall from his endless pockets... Who's with me? PS: I'm a Titan, so i don't say that for my own satisfaction...
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Yeah, Bungie can go do nasty things to themselves for their continued Warlock BS... Hunters and Titans get the hot shit every week, and the stats on those become better and better! We Warlocks have been waiting for MONTHS! >=(
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5 답변You're misunderstanding the stats. You said there was like a 16% ish chance of Voidfang any given week yes? Well then that's that, that's RNG. The fact that it HAPPENED doesn't change any of the future odds of it happening. It may be a low chance that it has happened each week, but it doesn't decrease the chance of it dropping in any future week.
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Not bad logic considering warlocks have been getting screwed since Sunbreakers, but that's assuming that multiple weeks of items are decided at once. It seems to me to be more likely that the generation is done on a week-by-week basis, meaning the chances seem a bit better of this happening even though literally speaking statistically they're the same.
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2 답변I wish it was only 4 weeks in a row it's been this for warlocks Sun breakers Sunbreakers Apotheosis veil Sun breakers Light beyond whatever Voidfang Voidfang Void fang Voidfang Voidfang Void fang Voidfang
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1 답변[quote]I'M SPEAKING OF THE MATH OF GETTING IT FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW NOT ON A WEEK BY WEEK BASIS.[/quote] The only thing consistent about the RNG in this game is that everyone has the exact same chances every single time they do something. You've fallen into the Gambler's Trap, the idea that theoretical probability is more important than Practical Probability. If you roll a dice 5 times, and it lands on 6 for the first 4 times, the dice would still potentially land on six. It doesn't care about how many times you've rolled a 6, if the die lands on 6 then the die will land on 6. It's hard to prove something is random using math, since RNG is RNG and RNG does whatever the heck it wants. It could easily be coincidence that the results of the RNG align with mathematical data. For example, when the first iPod shuffle came out, people had complained that songs from the same artist or album would frequently play after each other despite the shuffle being advertised as having the ability to randomly generate and then play a list of songs. It turned out that the Shuffle used true randomness to arrange songs which resulted in RNG placing songs from the same album next to each other because RNG is RNG. So if anything, Xur is an example of true randomness. But he isn't, there was a thread a while back where it was revealed that Xur's stock was selected by certain Bungie employees.
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작성자: RenTheDarklight 11/29/2014 7:48:14 AMActually if you look at the Exotic weapon pattern it seems to follow a cycle of Primary then a secondary or a heavy twice in a row. Next week should either be a primary or a heavy. and after that it should be a primary or a secondary.
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7 답변
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1 답변Was posted a couple weeks back. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bieA_lLQnhU Completely debunks your theory.
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2 답변
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3 답변On a PvP Livestream, DeeJ clearly states that there are people who choose what xur sells. DeeJ is not in control of that, but rest assured there ARE people in charge of what xur sells. It is NOT RNG.
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3 답변
