1:04- DeeJ's video
I'M TIRED OF ALL THE -blam!-ING LIES; FROM THE HYPE THAT I BOUGHT THE GAME BELIEVING TO THE CRAP WE HAVE TO DEALING WITH NOW.
IF YOU ARGUE ABOUT WEIGHTED PROBABILITY, YOU HAVE NO CONCEPT OF WHAT TRUE RNG IS; HERES WHY!
1. A WEIGHTED DIE TO ROLL A 4 MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS CONTROLLED AND SELECTED BY THE CREATOR OF THE DIE
2. A NON WEIGHTED DIE WHERE ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL IS TRUE RNG BECAUSE ITS CLOSE TO BEING TRULY RANDOM.
DESTINY WAS CREATED USING #1. -> "THE PLAN"
DEEJ's LEAK
1. Most employees are fired for releasing controversial information (true or not)
2. DeeJ was forced put out a community apology instead of being fired because being fired would have just proved to the community that Xur was not RNG
3. DeeJ's earlier posts are about how useless the updates are or how pointless his job is, probably in retaliation to getting in trouble for the leak.
4. When DeeJ reply's to troll post about leaks he calls them a troll and is very non serious. When DeeJ reply's to actual leeks he is very serious.
DeeJ's quote:
[quote]Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here.
Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops.
Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own.
Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game.
These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either.
I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.[/quote]
THIS IS WHAT PERFECT RNG LOOKS LIKE WITH EQUAL CHANCES
A 1/14 chance at each exotic weapon
HERE IS A ALGORITHM:
I made an algorithm from my calculus textbook using 14 exotic weapons and using TLW as an example:
x=0 to "# of weeks" 1-(x!/(0!*(x-0)!))*(1/14)^(0)*(5/14)^(x) plot If you run the number of weeks it will give you the probability of it being in his inventory by that # of weeks.
I assumed two things: that they are weighted equally and that Xur is completely random
1. Hard Light
2. SUROS Regime
3. MIDA Multi-Tool
4. Red Death
5. The Last Word
6. Universal Remote
7. No Land Beyond
8. Ice Breaker
9. Patience and Time
10. Plan C
11. Dragon's Breath
12. Gjallarhorn
13. Thunderlord
14. Truth
You can run the equation yourself if you are interested. But if we don't see a repeat of all exotics in the loot table by next September There is no way that Xur is RNG.
Edit 2 *** here's the original reason
"Are you unhappy with Xur: Agent of the Nine's inventory in Destiny and are cursing Destiny developer Bungie for it? well, Bungie is innocent and has nothing to do with Xur: Agent of the Nine inventory, its completely random and not Bungie-made"
Edit 3** Nothing in this game is RNG
https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/101836196/0/0/1
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4 通の返信I think when Deej made that post about the ice breaker after Xur sold it kinda sold me on the fact he isn't random.
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3 通の返信Who cares? Only the people who haven't gotten Gjallarhorn yet, apparently. I was in the same boat, but I never bitched about it. I kept playing and playing, and two weeks ago I got my first Gjallarhorn. Then this week I got my second. Yay. Now do what I did...keep playing the game! Don't wait for Xur to sell you shit. Play the game and it'll drop when you least expect it.
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4 通の返信Saw this yesterday.Probability post was flawed especially when it came to the armor. The guys math showed only one piece of armor sold each week where xur actually sells one piece for each class which there were only 6 for each class pre dlc. This would leave a 1/6 chance of rolling any individual piece of armor each week. Have u ever rolled the same number on a die 4 times in a row? It happens. For the weapons, he's only had repeats for two weeks in a row to date and in 20 some weeks so far it's completely possible a couple of the possible rolls haven't come up yet. Now, anything is possible. It could b fixed, it could be weighted (I'm starting to think the RNG for weeklies and xur are weighted toward dlc content, again just a possibility) or it could b total RNG. Any possible individual order is equally likely as another. It's impossible to prove with any certainty that xur is or is not RNG. That's just the nature of RNG and of probabilities and statistics.
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4 通の返信Nope. -blam!- you. [spoiler]waiting for your attempt to diss me because I didn't understand your maths[/spoiler]
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20 通の返信If it isn't random why would they have done the same items multiple times knowing it has alienated the player base and possibly lost revenue?
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2 通の返信Xur = RNG = (R)andom Bungie employees get to pick (N)umbers to see who gets to (G)enerate weekly Xur offerings.
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2 通の返信
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13 通の返信
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monkykenにより編集済み: 2/3/2015 4:06:33 PMThe probability calculations are based off a completely normal RNG system that only picks up each item from its own individual pool once. The system could easily be a weighted RNG to make certain items more rare or as someone said it could be set groups of items and not individual pools that would make the above completely invalid. If they say its RNG its RNG and why does it matter its their game they can create change and do as they please if people don't like it then they should go play a game they enjoy or better yet make a game the way they want. To note everything I have said I say as speculation and not fact. All I am saying is that we do not know how Xur is coded to work and that there are far to many possible factors for anyone to say he is or is not RNG. All I can confirm is that someone wrote the RNG code that makes Xur work and that they can if required do a bit of fiddling to the potential outcomes. ( they also confirmed they do know what he will sell prior to him selling it suggesting his outputs are probably determined on Tuesday at reset time)
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8 通の返信The probability of a peice of armor being sold is 11.11% chance.... There are 9 peices of armor for each class that can be sold by xur. Far from the chance of .0whatever and as for the weapons each weapon has a 7.15% chance of being sold depending on if its catagory is chosen that week. Im not trying to start a war with you but i actually have xurs possible invintory, history, and chances all recorded in my phone.