Even with a huge playerbase dropoff, focusing on the most engaged players for cash shop monetization still makes sense because these players, whales or high-retention spenders or whatever else you want to call them, account for a significant majority of live service game revenue. The average player may leave or lose interest, but those -blam!- tend to be deeply invested, both emotionally and financially, and are the ones most likely to continue spending over time.
As the playerbase shrinks, the game's economic focus shifts from broad appeal to maximizing value from the core dedicated users. These high-engagement players persist through content fatigue and burnout, chasing the dopamine feedback loops that live service games are built upon. When gameplay stops delivering that rush, they increasingly turn to cash shop items or convenience purchases, not unlike how Destiny structures its microtransactions and season pass shortcuts.
Meanwhile, the amount that these loyal users contribute can more than offset a wider drop in active player numbers, which is why even games with declining populations sometimes demonstrate stable or even increasing revenues per active player. In essence, monetization strategies don’t just survive but can thrive with a smaller, highly engaged audience—the people most susceptible to the subtle behavioral nudges built into the game's design.
Sure. It’s just that the players I knew personally who bought every armor ornament with matching ship and sparrow each season, basically dropping an extra $30 - $80 a season no longer play. They’ve moved on. They’re spending in Path of Exile, Warframe and Destiny Rising now.
Bungie has to sell more items to a shrinking whale population.