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オリジナルの投稿元: Exotic Raid Drop Rates are Terribly Balanced
10/31/2022 3:24:01 AM
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Out of millions of people running the raid of course not everyone is gonna get it. Its RNG boo hoo you dont get the gun. Players like you would be malding in D1 where exotics dropped every blue moon.
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  • No it's not just "RNG" at play here and I personally have proof of this. The drop rates are bugged plain and simple. So just stfu 1/10 troll.

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  • [quote]No it's not just "RNG" at play here and I personally have proof of this. The drop rates are bugged plain and simple. So just stfu 1/10 troll.[/quote] No, i want to see your proof of this, honestly. If you wanna call me a troll lmao then show me your proof. Drop rates are not bugged and im sure your proof will be you saying you ran the raid X times

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  • I ran Vault about 20+ times with the same guys in my clan. The same guy got 6 Vex Mythoclast drops while I got none. And only one other player ever got 1 Vex to drop for him. That's my proof. That is mathematically impossible for it to be "random chance" for the same person to hit a jackpot six times out of only 25'ish pulls of the slot machine. That is bugged code.

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  • That's not proof ite heresay

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  • [quote]I ran Vault about 20+ times with the same guys in my clan. The same guy got 6 Vex Mythoclast drops while I got none. And only one other player ever got 1 Vex to drop for him. That's my proof. That is mathematically impossible for it to be "random chance" for the same person to hit a jackpot six times out of only 25'ish pulls of the slot machine. That is bugged code.[/quote] Yup there is its the guy whips out the “oh I haven’t gotten it while hes gotten it X times” and then claims their formula is “correct” No its not mathematically impossible, the drop rate is about 10% and getting it 6 times isn’t impossible it’s improbable but possible and not getting it at all is possible. The thing people like you who don’t comprehend statistics underatand is your chances don’t magically get better each run its the same chance every single time. Im sitting here thinking you got some actual proof XD nope your just another kid online who think they are right because they did some basic statistical math

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  • It's official: you're an idiot. That's literally not how "RNG" could ever be mathematically working under any stretch of the definition. Oh and everyone knows that 10% number is pure bunk by the way. The droprate is nowhere NEAR 10%! What I observed happening is literally mathematically impossible. You have no idea what you're talking about. Play with an online probability calculator if you don't believe me!

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  • [quote]It's official: you're an idiot. That's literally not how "RNG" could ever be mathematically working under any stretch of the definition. Oh and everyone knows that 10% number is pure bunk by the way. The droprate is nowhere NEAR 10%! What I observed happening is literally mathematically impossible. You have no idea what you're talking about. Play with an online probability calculator if you don't believe me![/quote] I never claimed it was 10% i said it was near and it actually is near that number since the drop rate is above 5%. Also that is how RNG works, its basic statistics you can land on the % chance to get it multiple times its simple randomness. But i guess you cant comprehend that. I guess the concepts are too advanced for someone like you. Also the fact you tell me to play with a online probability calculator is hilarious as it tells me thats what you did and all of a sudden your a pro with proof lmao. I guess that makes me a grandmaster since i always considered statistics to be a joke in Highschool and College. Its easy to calculate that stuff in your head why use a calculator? Literally your logic is not proof its a assumption going off the ONE THING everyone who teaches statistics preaches and its that “just because something is improbable it doesn’t mean its impossible” its simply random and just because you dont have something someone else does doesn’t mean its bugged, its working just fine. Just your little brain is trying to rationalize something that you are upset about

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  • Docventureにより編集済み: 10/31/2022 6:56:16 PM
    [quote]Its easy to calculate that stuff in your head why use a calculator? [/quote] Cool so what's the probability that someone gets the same thing 6 times out of 30 in a group of 6 other people given the stated percentage of said thing having a 5% chance to drop "randomly" for everyone? Go ahead genius show me.

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  • [quote][quote]Its easy to calculate that stuff in your head why use a calculator? [/quote] Cool so what's the probability that someone gets the same thing 6 times out of 30 in a group of 6 other people given the stated percentage of said thing having a 5% chance to drop "randomly" for everyone? Go ahead genius show me.[/quote] The group of 6 people doesn’t matter in your equation, as well you just multiply the equation by 5% each time it fails lmao. Its 5% x the amount of time tried and it has to be done one at a time -blam!-% x 6 just gives the probability of the 5% hitting. Its low for sure but again its improbable but not impossible the one statement you dont want to listen to whats the point of saying a extremely low number when it can still happen? Honestly people like you make me question if people online are really stupid or really ignorant. Because you dont want to understand that it’s possible. Your friend is one out of millions of people he doesn’t set the baseline for anyone. What sets the baseline is people like you who dont get the gun. Which shows that it has a low drop rate. Also the fact you literally act like im there infront of you is hilarious, like damn dude. There is nothing i can do to change your mind because of how stupid you are and dead set you are into believing you are right, like even if i did give you the answer which i could since these formulas are quite easy to calculate since thats the nature of statistics. You wouldn’t believe me, but i dont care because there’s already been someone -blam!- your stupid comment saying you have proof and made fun of you for it. Ill be extremely kind to you right now and save you any further embarrassment, you edit all your messages to say “message deleted my bad” then ill hide all the stuff you said since i quoted it all. [b][i][u]Improbable but not impossible[/u][/i][/b] basic statistics

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  • You still didn't answer the question. I thought this was easy to do in your head? What's the probability?

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  • [quote]You still didn't answer the question. I thought this was easy to do in your head? What's the probability?[/quote] Its around 0.0000003125 its not as if i had to do much work to get it :/ Also there’s literally no way i can prove it was done without a calculator also i just said i can do it without a calculator :/ paper and pencil still exist. Its just 5% x 1 then each resulting number x 5% till you do it 4 times more. Like what you want to see the small number? But you are stupid and its not 0 its still a number and your friend just got lucky its the plain simple, using him/her as a reason on why its bugged is dumb since thats not a baseline rate. They are just a lucky person and its the plain simple of it You want me to say it again? [b][i][u]improbable but not impossible [/u][/i][/b]

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  • I don't care if you used a calculator or not. Dude wtf. This isn't [i]A Beautiful Mind[/i], we're gamers! I don't care how good or bad at math you are. Thanks for giving me the answer. I think I just proved the code is bugged. Well you proved, thanks. That is just NOT possible in the real world. Give it up with this improbable but not impossible slogan. This is happening all over the game, not just to me.

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  • Gilgameshにより編集済み: 10/31/2022 7:35:35 PM
    [quote]I don't care if you used a calculator or not. Dude wtf. This isn't [i]A Beautiful Mind[/i], we're gamers! I don't care how good or bad at math you are. Thanks for giving me the answer. I think I just proved the code is bugged. Well you proved, thanks. That is just NOT possible in the real world. Give it up with this improbable but not impossible slogan. This is happening all over the game, not just to me.[/quote] Um you are stupid, thats not the luckiest thing thats ever happened as well you have a lower chance to win the lottery. The chance to win the lottery is so low its 1 in about 14 million. The code is NOT bugged and its not happening all over the game i want you to give me atleast 100 cases of this happening. Prove that it’s happening all over the game because you are literally using your friend as a example XD Its improbable not impossible, god you must be a child. I love it when a kid online acts like they are the next albert Einstein. And pretend that they know more then people who are way smarter then them

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  • The code that increases your chances of getting the same piece of legendary gear/weapons once you gotten one of them in the raid, is bugged and is applying to the Exotic weapon. I'm not the only one telling you this on this exact thread idiot! How many people have to tell you something is broken before you stop simping for Bungie on this? My friend obviously got an increasing chance to loot the Vex Mythoclast after the first drop, and then that applied to increase his chances of the third one - and so on and so forth. You aren't making logical sense. There's just NO way simple RNG explains this.

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  • [quote]The code that increases your chances of getting the same piece of legendary gear/weapons once you gotten one of them in the raid, is bugged and is applying to the Exotic weapon. I'm not the only one telling you this on this exact thread idiot! How many people have to tell you something is broken before you stop simping for Bungie on this? My friend obviously got an increasing chance to loot the Vex Mythoclast after the first drop, and then that applied to increase his chances of the third one - and so on and so forth. You aren't making logical sense. There's just NO way simple RNG explains this.[/quote] Bruh, i just explained to you. Your one friend isn’t what everyone is experiencing, literally no other post on the fourms here that has anyone claiming the same thing people just say their friends get it on the first try which is 5% not subsequent runs. Also there is no “increase chance of getting legendary loot you’ve already earned” that is kinda a stupid thing to assume budy Also your logic makes even less sense since that bug would apply to everyone not just a select few since we all play the exact same version of the game. Like again its improbable not impossible, there are people who have had rarer things happen. Its entirely possible for you to flip a coin and during your entire life it never lands on heads. Its just improbable. Nothing is considered impossible unless its literally impossible and can not happen because physics prevents it. Nothing is preventing your friend from being lucky. And I genuinely feel bad for them because instead of you being a actual good ducking friend you say their good luck isn’t theirs. Damn you are a shitty friend to them.

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  • Yes, you have proof...I laughed so hard....

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  • 1
    I played D1 since year 1 and never did I spend a total of more than 10 weeks (30 runs) hunting a raid exotic, or any exotic for that matter. The drop rates you’re taking about were literally only like that for the first year and a half bud.

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  • So you were one of the lucky ones. Took me almost 2 years to get gjallarhorn to drop. Some people never even got stuff like praetorian foil from vog in the entirety of D1 In D2 though I've been a little luckier. Got 1k voices on my 1st run of last wish, and it didn't take long to get vex. Tldr It's rng

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  • [quote]I played D1 since year 1 and never did I spend a total of more than 10 weeks (30 runs) hunting a raid exotic, or any exotic for that matter. The drop rates you’re taking about were literally only like that for the first year and a half bud.[/quote] Im not your bud, and D1 drop rates never increased. Three of Coins were added and more avenues of gaining exotics were added but the flat drop rate was always the same. I genuinely dont care how many raids you ran 20% is 20% statistics teaches you that. It doesn’t matter how many times you role you have a 80% chance to get nadda. I just kinda find it funny that you didn’t know that drop rates were never increased without the addition of buffs. As well you neglect how Exotics even worked back then because you could gain duplicates or even be trolled by a random exotic dropping and it being a duplicate of one you own from a raid boss

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  • 1
    [quote][quote]I played D1 since year 1 and never did I spend a total of more than 10 weeks (30 runs) hunting a raid exotic, or any exotic for that matter. The drop rates you’re taking about were literally only like that for the first year and a half bud.[/quote] Im not your bud, and D1 drop rates never increased. Three of Coins were added and more avenues of gaining exotics were added but the flat drop rate was always the same. I genuinely dont care how many raids you ran 20% is 20% statistics teaches you that. It doesn’t matter how many times you role you have a 80% chance to get nadda. I just kinda find it funny that you didn’t know that drop rates were never increased without the addition of buffs. As well you neglect how Exotics even worked back then because you could gain duplicates or even be trolled by a random exotic dropping and it being a duplicate of one you own from a raid boss[/quote] By adding multiple more areas to obtain exotics, you increase the likelihood of getting one while playing the game because you have more chances, you’re completely missing the point. Exotics could literally drop at any raid encounter, from the chests, from legendary engrams, three of coins, and so on. The exotics were literally dropping like they were in D2 year 1. Now, there are far less ways to get exotics, but there’s repeat exotic protection now, that’s the only significant difference. “20% is 20%” would be great if Bungie actually confirmed the chance of raid exotic drop rates, but they don’t, so it’s not a matter of statistics, BUD.

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  • Gilgameshにより編集済み: 10/31/2022 6:21:44 PM
    What you said is wrong, there is no likelihood increase your chance stays the same unless a 3 of couns is used. Simply because the drop rate isn’t increasing But hey i only know basic math

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  • 1
    You don’t know statistics at all. By increasing the amount of avenues to obtain an exotic, of course the flat rate doesn’t increase (nobody said that), but the chances of getting an exotic are increased because there are more ways to get one.

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  • [quote]You don’t know statistics at all. By increasing the amount of avenues to obtain an exotic, of course the flat rate doesn’t increase (nobody said that), but the chances of getting an exotic are increased because there are more ways to get one.[/quote] Um no, thats not how statistics works, a proper example is, you have a bag with 10 marbles, 9 are red 1 is blue. You have a 10% chance of picking the blue marble. Adding more revenues is the equivalent of adding more bags in attempts to grab the blue marble as you have 1 attempt per bag. A 3 of coins added in 2 more blue marbles making the total 12 marbles 9 being red and 3 being blue. That actually increases your likelihood hood of getting a exotic. Also people have been replying to your comment with their experiences and it seems like you just used your personal no life grinding experience as a baseline for everyone

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  • 1
    By increasing the number of “bags” in the wild, you subsequently increase the likelihood of getting the blue marble. It’s that simple. Your three of coins example is correct, for ONE Avenue though. If I were playing the same thing over and over again, my chances would be the same every time, unless I added the three of coins. However, that’s not how the destiny loot system works for every activity. You get pinnacle/high tier drops by completing the weekly activities (and it’s been like that since D1) and by having more of those pinnacle drops, you increase the likelihood of getting an exotic every week. Also, no life grinding??? I’m nowhere close to 1600 light, what makes you think I mindlessly grind this game? Just seems like ad hominem cause you can’t come up with a better solution.

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  • [quote]By increasing the number of “bags” in the wild, you subsequently increase the likelihood of getting the blue marble. It’s that simple. Your three of coins example is correct, for ONE Avenue though. If I were playing the same thing over and over again, my chances would be the same every time, unless I added the three of coins. However, that’s not how the destiny loot system works for every activity. You get pinnacle/high tier drops by completing the weekly activities (and it’s been like that since D1) and by having more of those pinnacle drops, you increase the likelihood of getting an exotic every week. Also, no life grinding??? I’m nowhere close to 1600 light, what makes you think I mindlessly grind this game? Just seems like ad hominem cause you can’t come up with a better solution.[/quote] No its not increasing the likelihood, the chance of a exotic dropping isn’t increasing. God people are stupid. I dealt with a moron who used his friend being lucky as proof the games bugged to some guy online who doesn’t understand that having more avenues doesn’t equate to a higher percentage. Having 5 10% chances doesn’t make it 50% it makes it 10%

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