1:04- DeeJ's video
I'M TIRED OF ALL THE -blam!-ING LIES; FROM THE HYPE THAT I BOUGHT THE GAME BELIEVING TO THE CRAP WE HAVE TO DEALING WITH NOW.
IF YOU ARGUE ABOUT WEIGHTED PROBABILITY, YOU HAVE NO CONCEPT OF WHAT TRUE RNG IS; HERES WHY!
1. A WEIGHTED DIE TO ROLL A 4 MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS CONTROLLED AND SELECTED BY THE CREATOR OF THE DIE
2. A NON WEIGHTED DIE WHERE ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL IS TRUE RNG BECAUSE ITS CLOSE TO BEING TRULY RANDOM.
DESTINY WAS CREATED USING #1. -> "THE PLAN"
DEEJ's LEAK
1. Most employees are fired for releasing controversial information (true or not)
2. DeeJ was forced put out a community apology instead of being fired because being fired would have just proved to the community that Xur was not RNG
3. DeeJ's earlier posts are about how useless the updates are or how pointless his job is, probably in retaliation to getting in trouble for the leak.
4. When DeeJ reply's to troll post about leaks he calls them a troll and is very non serious. When DeeJ reply's to actual leeks he is very serious.
DeeJ's quote:
[quote]Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here.
Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops.
Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own.
Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game.
These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either.
I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.[/quote]
THIS IS WHAT PERFECT RNG LOOKS LIKE WITH EQUAL CHANCES
A 1/14 chance at each exotic weapon
HERE IS A ALGORITHM:
I made an algorithm from my calculus textbook using 14 exotic weapons and using TLW as an example:
x=0 to "# of weeks" 1-(x!/(0!*(x-0)!))*(1/14)^(0)*(5/14)^(x) plot If you run the number of weeks it will give you the probability of it being in his inventory by that # of weeks.
I assumed two things: that they are weighted equally and that Xur is completely random
1. Hard Light
2. SUROS Regime
3. MIDA Multi-Tool
4. Red Death
5. The Last Word
6. Universal Remote
7. No Land Beyond
8. Ice Breaker
9. Patience and Time
10. Plan C
11. Dragon's Breath
12. Gjallarhorn
13. Thunderlord
14. Truth
You can run the equation yourself if you are interested. But if we don't see a repeat of all exotics in the loot table by next September There is no way that Xur is RNG.
Edit 2 *** here's the original reason
"Are you unhappy with Xur: Agent of the Nine's inventory in Destiny and are cursing Destiny developer Bungie for it? well, Bungie is innocent and has nothing to do with Xur: Agent of the Nine inventory, its completely random and not Bungie-made"
Edit 3** Nothing in this game is RNG
https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/101836196/0/0/1
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How is it safe to assume that ALL exotics are part of Xur's possible weekly inventory? Or even that they all have the same chance of squeezing in as part of the inventory? I tend to believe that it's possible that Xur IS random, but that certain items have a higher probability of showing up than others. I've waited for MIDA multitool for weeks...when He's sold the same crap over and over again. He's only sold MIDA once. And again, it may be possible that some items, such as gjallarhorn, may not even be in the pool of possible items for his inventory. And its even possible that Bungie might choose a specific pool of items each week, which is then randomized when xur comes. Thoughts? Or tell me why I might be wrong?
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All I care about rn is some goddamn synths
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Editado por Calliber: 2/12/2015 4:41:13 PMYou did not do that right. You assumed that because it was not present one week that it has a greater chance the next. The chance of it being available is equal from 1 week to the next, it does not increase. The chance of "Plan C" appearing again this week is 1/14, the chance of it appearing in 2 weeks, 1/14. The chance of it appearing 4 weeks from now, 1/14. Just because it doesn't appear doesn't mean it's going to have a greater chance to appear. Players of Diablo 3 understood this when dealing with the Ancient Machine in Act 2. 10 outcomes of it, achievement required you to see all 10. It took me 1.5 years to get all 10 outcomes (played from launch), some people even longer, some never got it. With Xur, we're dealing with an even smaller chance, and to not see Gjall by next December wouldn't be all that surprising. Edit: They did say his chances of certain weapons is the same as loot drops, which means that if Gjall is weighted in the drops then it is also weighted with Xur. It's still RNG, chances of it appearing in the list doesn't change from week to week....unless you add or remove weapons from the list all together.
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Editado por Desmond of Vanguard: 2/6/2015 10:47:58 AMIt's most likely that they have HIGHER chance for DLC stuff atm. Because they are new things.
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"The Strike playlist is not RNG! I haven't gotten my *insert exotic*!" I can whine about anything RNG too.
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Calm the -blam!- down...its a game Not only that, its about -blam!-ing Xur.... you CANNOT possibly care that much man...cmon....
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If you were to roll a die and not see a repeat of one of the six sides in 1000 rolls, then you would claim that someone was intentionally manipulating the outcome of the die?
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The devs have no right to hold back info they damn well know from the community. We payed money to play your game, that YOU produced. We have the right to know whether or not he is RNG. It's not personal information, it's info the community needs to know. It needs to be addressed publicly and not as side comments from the producers.
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Here's something that's better proof of xur is not rng
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Editado por Vikz88: 2/12/2015 2:57:47 PMYou can not put a time limit on probability. It is what it is, all down to chance. Go roll a 13 sided die and see how many times you land on 3. It may take you 10 tries to get it 10 times. It may take 10,000. When you have a big enough sample size it should have an equal spread. 15 attempts (destiny has been out 15 weeks I think) is not a large enough sample size. I do however suspect it is not true RNG but weighted towards the less wanted weapons.
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It is rng jack ass.
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If it was RNG and there's no way to control his inventory, why have the ability to see the inventory before Xur lands in the tower? If you can't change it, what's the point of knowing before hand? I call lies, it's not RNG or if it is, Bungie have a system in place where they can override items in the inventory and that's why they can see it before Friday.
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Theres no way its random. Rng is either broken or they control xur and its probably both. Its sad when talking on a forum is more fun than playing the game. There's no point to level I g same old weapons for same old strikes that I've played hundreds of times.
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No one cares
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You do not have every exotic lol. You're missing invective and super good advice
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If items are weighted then it's not truly random.
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Editado por inFAMOUS: 2/5/2015 8:04:34 AMfirst. your equation is not correct. because of your "assumption" drop rate is also, heavily affected with procentige of drop. some weapons/armours have higher procentige and "drop" more often. which also affect Xur's inventory. second. if Xur inventory is really random?! why he doesn't sell Vex or Faith Of All Fools or CE The Nechrochasm or exotic bounties weapons? Xur will never sell those weapons! why? because bungie hand pick weapons for Xur to sell. and if they done that. (as they did) Xur inventory is not random!
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Last week Xur repeated his entire loot table from about a month ago, and all items were DLC. The odds of that occurring naturally would happen less often [b]then how long our universe has existed[/b]. This shouldn't even be a debate, Xur, at best, has weighted RNG. It's up to you to decide if you care enough.
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You do know the moment you go to "I [b][i][u]ASSUME[/u][/i][/b] all are weighted equally" you were already wrong? You know what happens when you assume? You make an ass of you and me.
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I just want to know why rng was even added to this game. Destiny would have been alot better if it just stuck to a proper reward system. There is no motivation to do well in this game, why should you try when you have just as much chance at the best rewards with a 0.5kd as a guy with a 5.0kd. This game would have been so much better if the reward system was based on achievements ingame i.e. ghorn awarded for completing hm crota or random exotic awarded to top player in a pvp match, 5000 kills in strikes gets you the exotic bounty of your choice. The rng system makes no sense to me if trading isnt in the game.
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Sooo how does this affect you if it's not random.. Do you just want him to sell gally and icebreaker and hawkmoon every week? Hell maybe if you go on eBay you can buy an account with everything done for you so you can stop crying about things that don't matter..
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This thread gave me diarrhea
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Editado por Pyro 509: 2/6/2015 11:22:35 AMYou're also assuming hardlight, thunderlord, and universal remote can be sold by xur. On a side note - the may have removed other exotics as well like gjallarhorn which could be why we haven't seen it again.
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Of course it isn't 100% random. That doesn't mean theres a guy picking each item or anything either. It's obviously weighted in some way. But weighted RNG is still RNG
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4 x plan c... You do the math