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Editado por RandyMarsh: 2/16/2015 9:50:51 PM
239

ANOTHER LIE? SO THE COMMUNITY KNOWS XUR AND THE GAME ARE NOT TRUE RNG, NOW WHAT?

1:04- DeeJ's video I'M TIRED OF ALL THE -blam!-ING LIES; FROM THE HYPE THAT I BOUGHT THE GAME BELIEVING TO THE CRAP WE HAVE TO DEALING WITH NOW. IF YOU ARGUE ABOUT WEIGHTED PROBABILITY, YOU HAVE NO CONCEPT OF WHAT TRUE RNG IS; HERES WHY! 1. A WEIGHTED DIE TO ROLL A 4 MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS CONTROLLED AND SELECTED BY THE CREATOR OF THE DIE 2. A NON WEIGHTED DIE WHERE ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL IS TRUE RNG BECAUSE ITS CLOSE TO BEING TRULY RANDOM. DESTINY WAS CREATED USING #1. -> "THE PLAN" DEEJ's LEAK 1. Most employees are fired for releasing controversial information (true or not) 2. DeeJ was forced put out a community apology instead of being fired because being fired would have just proved to the community that Xur was not RNG 3. DeeJ's earlier posts are about how useless the updates are or how pointless his job is, probably in retaliation to getting in trouble for the leak. 4. When DeeJ reply's to troll post about leaks he calls them a troll and is very non serious. When DeeJ reply's to actual leeks he is very serious. DeeJ's quote: [quote]Hey, there. Let me attempt to clear some things up here. Xur is randomized. There are times when we can pull off miracles like making him stay in the Tower longer when Christmas is cancelled, but his inventory is governed by the same chaos that influences all the loot drops. Comments in that video about "the plan" were more about the fact that we know what he's selling before he appears, even if we can't reach out and stock his shelves ourselves. We set him in motion, and his will is not his own. Also in that video, you can hear me confessing that I'm not always in the loop when it comes to these things, so you should take pre-game lobby comments among friends with a grain of salt. That video was from months ago, and I was still learning the intricacies of all the new systems that we launched with the game. These conspiracy theories are symptoms of a burning desire. Gjallarhorn is the most popular ask that comes my way. I know you want it, even more than the collective requests for more vault space. As you can see, these are things that are beyond my control. I don't have one either. I'll do my best to talk to the people who create the code that drives Xur, and see if we can make him more valuable to you in the future.[/quote] THIS IS WHAT PERFECT RNG LOOKS LIKE WITH EQUAL CHANCES A 1/14 chance at each exotic weapon HERE IS A ALGORITHM: I made an algorithm from my calculus textbook using 14 exotic weapons and using TLW as an example: x=0 to "# of weeks" 1-(x!/(0!*(x-0)!))*(1/14)^(0)*(5/14)^(x) plot If you run the number of weeks it will give you the probability of it being in his inventory by that # of weeks. I assumed two things: that they are weighted equally and that Xur is completely random 1. Hard Light 2. SUROS Regime 3. MIDA Multi-Tool 4. Red Death 5. The Last Word 6. Universal Remote 7. No Land Beyond 8. Ice Breaker 9. Patience and Time 10. Plan C 11. Dragon's Breath 12. Gjallarhorn 13. Thunderlord 14. Truth You can run the equation yourself if you are interested. But if we don't see a repeat of all exotics in the loot table by next September There is no way that Xur is RNG. Edit 2 *** here's the original reason "Are you unhappy with Xur: Agent of the Nine's inventory in Destiny and are cursing Destiny developer Bungie for it? well, Bungie is innocent and has nothing to do with Xur: Agent of the Nine inventory, its completely random and not Bungie-made" Edit 3** Nothing in this game is RNG https://www.bungie.net/en/Forum/Post/101836196/0/0/1

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  • Remember when y'all said I was crazy for thinking this...

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  • I still fail to see how weighted items [i]cant[/i] be considered RNG. Let's say you pick a number randomly, from 1-9. If you pick 1 or 2, you get option A. I you pick 3-9, you get option B. In this scenario, the outcome is [i]completely[/i] RNG.

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  • Even amongst the exotics, the rarest of the rare, there are still items considered common trash (ahem, NLB and sunbreakers), so they have a common weight applied to them, where as rarer exotics will have a lower chance weight. Random is still random, even if you get trash items more often.

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  • Editado por twinPrimesAreEz: 2/17/2015 1:06:50 AM
    Guys how hard is it to understand Xur is totally random*?? [spoiler]*Definition of random has now been expanded to include, but is not limited to the following: weighted loot tables, handpicked items, and anything else we the game developers deem fit[/spoiler]

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  • Both are probably true- Xur can be RNG, and bungie can manipulate it by weighing the items differently.

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    • They have a guy sitting behind a computer screen watching us play and then he decides what "RNG" will reward us. You're a moron. Lastly, have you been living under a rock? Scrub.

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      • Don't care, I have every exotic worth a damn already.

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        • Maybe Xur will randomly bring you a tampon?

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        • Who cares kid, just play the game.

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        • Shut up, Meg.

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        • You actually went through all that trouble working this out because you're butthurt over a game?

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        • I think it is trying to communicate...

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        • Honestly, does it really matter either way? He's going to sell whatever he (or they) wants to, regardless of what players want. If i were Bungie, and people were demanding a single weapon in a game with hundreds of other choices, I'd do anything i could to never offer it for sale either. People seem to be getting so upset over something so trivial. Does the Horn make the game a little easier? Yes I'm sure it does (don't have one personally), but you can still be successful while using something else. Just keep playing at high levels and you might get one as a reward. It won't be special anymore if everyone and their mother has it

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          • I don't understand why peopl have so much trouble grasping the concept of RNG. When Deej says that Xurs inventory is RNG, then that is not the same thing as saying that each of the items have an equal chance of getting selected. The only parameters that are required for Somethibg to be considered RNG is that Random Numbers are Generated to get the result. Let's use an example. We'll use numbers 1-100 for this... 1-50 represent Red Death 51-75 represent Icebreaker 76-90 represent Suros Regime 91-97 represent The Last Word 98-100 represent Gallahorn [sic] Using that table the computer could Randomly Generate a number to pick the first item. PS: How many people out here don't know what RNG stands for and just say it to sound like they know what they are talking about. Looking at the forums I'm not sure.

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            • To start off i believe xur and loot drops are npt random. That being said there are problems with your argument. You need to enter higher level stats to learn a few more things but your equations are good. But remember in a random sample which is what you have taken it is just that. A random sample. We have only had so many trials with xur and even if xur had come to the tower we still wouldn't be able to prove randomness or not. Example: If a fair dice is rolled 10 times and all 10 times showed a 1 on the face would you still statistically say its weighted or not a random toss. No. Even of you did 100 trials of the same example you can't prove randomness or weighted values unless you test the whole population of trials which only bungie knows. The math is correct but attempting to prove that from a random sample of just a few weeks of samples you can prove something is statistically biased is not only wrong but mathematically impossible. But as I said at the beginning I do accept that even though there can be no proof of a weighted mood drop or xur table I do believe there is. Regards Grad student in Statistics

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            • Stop hating the game, the RNG system and their devs only because u don't have Ghorn, all of u just want an easy way to get the most op heavy weapon of the game..

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            • Why all this crying.

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            • Anyone who codes know why, and in truth the random number generator is correct for the following reasons: 1. They are pulling the list of exotic weapons and gear, and the generator selects it randomly. 2. RNG in code has repeated issues of selecting the same numbers over and over. If you run the dice roll application, which you learn in a basic programing class, you will see multiple repeats in a 100 rolls. My application had at least 2 repeats. Longest chain of repeats I recalled was 7 or 8. 3. Bungie can easily manipulate data. So after the generator is ran, a developer can write a script to change any weapon or gear upon request. So when IB was requested, it was inserted. The other IB was totally randomized. Issue is they did not store store Xur weekly table, and bounced sold inventory for those weeks. What I would've done was store the data, and checked each item to ensure it wasn't sold the previous cycles. Armor and weapon cycles would be different due to the amount. Of course that change or enhancement would take a while to patch or hot fix out due to Bungies slow testing cycle.

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            • This post is silly! Does anyone actually care. Are you all in a hurry to have nothing to do in a month from now.

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            • Damn, the conspiracy theories are real. Deej is a community manager, not a programmer. There is no reason to expect him to understand every facet of how Destiny is put together. I personally believe that xûr's weekly inventories were generated as soon as he was inserted into the game. This is why the devs know what he will be selling, but not necessarily have control over it. This would reconcile the two statements made by Deej, showing that the process was clarified for him when he sat down and asked the guys who wrote the code for xûr. This is not national security we're talking about here; it doesn't have any actual impact on the game whatsoever. People acting like he slipped up and gave out SSN's or something.

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            • It doesn't matter how or why the loot system works the way it does. The fact is it works the way bungie intended it to and will always work the way they want it to work. Analysing why, how or complaining about or showing support for the loot system mechanics will change nothing. It is what it is and it always will be.

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            • Don't know if it is RNG but i do know you care way too much i think you have a problem.

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            • I think that randomness is a concept that goes against our intuition and leads to incorrect conclusions frequently. I want to use a simple example to try to shed some light. I think we can agree that the odds of landing on heads when you flip a coin is 1/2 and the odds of tails is 1/2. If you flip a coin 3 times, then, what are the odds that you'll have heads turn up at least once? The odds of getting tails 3 times in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. So, the odds of heads turning up at least once is 7/8 (87.5%). Now let's say the first flip was tails (50% chance). What are the odds that heads is going to turn up in the next 2 flips? Odds of 2 more tails is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4. So the odds of heads turning up in the last two flips is now 3/4 (75%). Now let's say the second flip was tails (again, a 50% chance). The odds that heads will show up on the last flip has dropped to 50%. The most important thing to note with randomness is that past results have absolutely no impact on future results. I would capitalize the previous sentence but I don't want you to think I'm yelling. The OP took a nice formula from his textbook to make an argument that something should show up after a certain amount of time, but after weeks have gone by without that something showing up, the odds of it showing up in the remaining time have been reduced. Just like the heads and tails example, heads should have shown up at least once in 3 flips 87.5% of the time. After you flip tails twice, though, do you think that heads still has an 87.5% chance to show up on that last flip? I hope not. Again, the important thing to note is that past results have no influence on future outcomes when it comes to randomness. Clearly people's intuition does not jive with this. For example, the roulette wheel in a casino usually displays previous results, and people use that display to decide how to bet. The display gives people the illusion of making an educated bet, but actually it tells you absolutely nothing about what will happen in the future. So, assuming all exotics have a 1/14 chance of showing up, the odds of any weapon in the inventory any given week are simply 1/14. Xur selling Plan C 4 weeks in a row has the exact same probability of occurring as him selling any other possible combination of 4 exotics over that 4 week period. People often reference repeat items as evidence of Xur not being random, but this is actually not evidence at all. Back to the coin example, here are the possible results of 3 coin flips: TTT TTH THT THH HTT HTH HHT HHH Every single one of those possible results has the exact same probability (1/8) of occurring. One more thing to note, even if you did want to prove the randomness or lack of randomness of Xur, the sample size is still too small to do any meaningful analysis. We need a lot more than 23 or so data points to do any real analysis. I don't know if Xur is random, but I do know that I have not seen one solid argument to debunk or confirm that he is. We simply don't have the information to reach a conclusion.

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            • Weighted RNG is not the same as a weighted die you numbskull. A weighted die has a weight in it that causes it to roll a particular number. Weighted RNG means that the die is normal, but certain items will drop with more numbers than just 1. There is no "control" over the number being picked, just more chances you get a particular prize.

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            • Who cares? I don't need xur. I earn my shit.

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            • Who the fck cares....

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