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11/17/2014 4:45:31 AM
59
Statistical Analysis: Do players control their own Destiny when it comes to hitting level 30?
In addition to being an avid Destiny player, I am a PhD student in statistics. I was curious about the probability of dedicated raiders finding enough raid gear to hit level 30, so I investigated.
I found that if a player were to complete the raid every single week for over nine months straight (a total of 40 times), they would still have a >2% chance of not having enough armor pieces to hit level 30 (and this is assuming they already have an exotic). If you took a sample of 500,000 players doing this (given how many people have already done the raid, I think this is a conservative estimate), over 11,000 players will complete the raid 40 times without ever being able to hit level 30.
Assumptions, upcoming changes, and possible solutions are addressed in the report. I would skip over the methods sections, unless you like conditional probability problems, in which case go for it. If you guys want, I can post the excel file with the matrices as well. Please excuse the lab-style format; it was the template I had on my desktop at the time.
Let me know what you guys think!
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//***UPDATE***// 17-NOV-2014 //***UPDATE***// Hey guys! Thanks for all of your support and interest in my work. As long as you guys are interested in this kind of stuff, I'll keep investigating! Many of you have expressed curiosity about drop rates and the number of people running the raid, saying the numbers I used are too big or too small. I want to give you all the chance to see what the results would look like with your own numbers! I am trying to upload an excel file with an automated output table. All you would have to do is input the numbers into yellow boxes and you could instantly see the effect on the final results. Unfortunately, the forum doesn't appear to have an option for file upload/download. You guys have any ideas for how to do this?
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1 RespuestaSo there's 10,999 players with the same bad luck as me :) We should have a BBQ or something
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I wish bungee cared. Great work regardless.
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1 RespuestaInteresting. By any chance, does your research show the average raids necessary to reach 30?
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Haha a post from a genius for an audience of morons...very noble my friend
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I think you thought about it more than bungie did. That or they wanna piss off a good percentage of their players.
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9 RespuestasI think I will water down your stats. I've only done the raid twice and hit level 30 today. Perhaps Im lucky? Should maybe have bought a lottery ticket instead of playing ;^)
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2 RespuestasIt's been mentioned before, but--speaking as a raid virgin, here--it seems like it would be smart to implement some sort of raid-specific currency as an automatic drop for each chest, each boss, or just from Atheon. Then add a vendor (or add a new purpose to Xur?) where you can spend your raid currency to buy raid rewards. Setting the price for gear in that economy is a job for someone with better context, but the major advantage there would be to cap the number of raids you can go on without completing your set. Every 4 completions (or whatever) earns you a piece of gear for sure, without the need to depend on the RNG to finally get you the boots you need rather than your third duplicate chest piece.
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Glad someone did some statistics work to prove what I had felt. Forget 9 months...how many people are likly not to be able to be level 30 by December 9th, when the first paid DLC comes out? And count them having the game on release. It isn't a small number of people, I am pretty sure.
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Excellent report. No one should be beholden to RNG. The toughest content in the game should have some guaranteed rewards outside of ascendant mats. Had a friend get every piece on his first run through to hit 30. Have another friend who has many hours invested and many run throughs and has 0 pieces. Nice work and I hope this has as impact.
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1 RespuestaEditado por Stop: 11/18/2014 1:45:08 AMNot to mention getting the perks you want on the raid gear Guessing it will take centuries
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1 RespuestaDingo...if you see this...are you assuming everything is a uniform distribution with equal chance for each loot table?
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Bump for the impressive nature of this post.
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Super bump because you nailed it! Haha
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Bump!!!!
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Sorry to burst ur bubble but with these statistics alone is not enough to accurately show loot tables. You have left out a ton of things that factor into these final results. U dont even know what base algo they are using for random to begin with. Good effort. Keep at it. U are on to something. U need more facts.
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Where did you get your data?
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2 Respuestasyou gotta speak -blam!-ing english in an unedumicated way.. i haven't been in school for like 12 yrs so my math is very rustttttyyyyyyyyyyy
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This is the awesomest investigation I've ever seen bungie should look at this report
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2 RespuestasTo start off, you are the most intelligent person I've seen on these forums. You also have the best thread that I've ever read. But I have a question that shouldn't be too hard for you. It's not meant to bust your balls or anything, but I am curious. What would the statistics be if they were set up to bungie's 3 million users a day claim? I know that the more people you use the more accurate the statistic is, so would it be considerably lower with that much of a higher sample group?
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1 RespuestaThat's comforting and at the same time fills my heart with hopelessness. I've completed the raid about 8 times all legitimately and I've only ever got a hunter cloak and two crappy guns.
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4 RespuestasTldr; just want to throw my piece in. There are people who game the current lockout with multiple toons of the same class. I'm sure this is mentioned. These people, if they aren't doing the delete and reroll, are finishing the raid 6 times a week. Bungie's intended vision was 2x a week, if even that since Deej keeps talking about VoG like it should be a campaign only a 3 stared General could lead a team of machine like navy seals though. I digress. If we look at those 6x a week players, they are essentially simulating MONTHS of VoG gameplay in weeks. Some of these people aren't getting 30. Most of them didn't get 30 in the number of plays it would have taken until the darkbelow would have dropped. Tldr: months of VoG are simulated in weeks worth of play and the verdict is, legitimate gameplay, no one would be 30 before dlc
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2 RespuestasThere is no reason I should get a shader and a useless ship for beating the raid.. Those rewards shouldn't even be possible. WOW doesn't even give you piss poor drops like that for finishing dungeons. I can deal with RNG everywhere else but the raid requires too much to give so little.. Please fix it.
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1 RespuestaMakes sense. We definitely have no control over what we look like if we want to hit 30. Not looking forward to getting 30 because I'll look like every other 30 out there. I want cosmetic slots.
