*Edit notes at end*
Materials Spent:
213750 Gunsmith Materials (this includes spending materials returned upon dismantle and assumes I dismantled all weapons)
5400 Weapon Telemetries
Reputation Gained:
2250 Gunsmith Ranks
Resources Gained:
9000 Legendary Shards (assuming I dismantled all weapons)
766 Enhancement Cores
32 Finest Matterweaves
39 Rainmakers
24 Pure Matterglass Lens
I wanted to share the results for a few reasons:
1. To help keep people's expectations in check regarding the weapons they will obtain from Banshee-44.
2. To understand what the true drop rates of weapons are, which can help us better understand Banshee-44 going into Witch Queen.
3. I like spreadsheets and numbers.
4. I suspected the droprates of weapons were not equal, and recording such a large number of data points would help confirm that suspicion.
I only kept a small handful of weapons, these are the ones of note that I kept:
[spoiler]Scathelocke:
Extended Barrel
Tactical/Appended Mag
Subsistance
Rampage
Handling MW
Stochastic Variable
Polygonal Rifling
Alloy/Appended/Light Mag
Feeding Frenzy
Multikill Clip
Reload MW
True Prophecy
Crossfire HCS
Steady Rounds
Rangefinder
Timed Payload
Stability MW
Memory Interdict
Quick Launch
Spike/Proximity Grenades
Auto-Loading Holster
Chain Reaction
Handling MW
The Deicide
Barrel Shroud
Steady Rounds
Grave Robber
One-Two Punch
Stability MW
Contingency Plan
Hammer-Forged Rifling
Accurized Rounds
Tunnel Vision
Kill Clip
Stability MW
Annual Skate
HitMark HCS
Appended Mag
Triple Tap
Timed Payload
Reload MW[/spoiler]
Here is the percentage drop rate for each individual weapon for all 2250 drops:
[spoiler]
Weapon Season Total Drop Rate
The Number Splicer 102 4.5%
Crown-Splitter Splicer 98 4.4%
Stochastic Variable Splicer 97 4.3%
The Deicide Splicer 95 4.2%
Pleiades Corrector Splicer 95 4.2%
Cartesian Coordinate Chosen 93 4.1%
Scathelocke Lost 90 4.0%
Memory Interdict Splicer 89 4.0%
Eternal Blazon Chosen 88 3.9%
Legal Action II Lost 82 3.6%
The Vision Splicer 80 3.6%
Retrofuturist Chosen 79 3.5%
Widow's Bite Prophecy 77 3.4%
Tarantula Chosen 76 3.4%
Annual Skate Lost 69 3.1%
Hoosegow Prophecy 68 3.0%
Spoiler Alert Lost 68 3.0%
Contingency Plan Lost 64 2.8%
Negative Space Prophecy 63 2.8%
Ikelos_SG_V1.0.2 Prophecy 63 2.8%
Bad Omens Prophecy* 62 2.8%
Shepherd's Watch Lost 59 2.6%
Ikelos_HC_V1.0.2 Prophecy 55 2.4%
Death Adder Prophecy 51 2.3%
Ikelos_SMG_V1.0.2 Arrivals 24 1.1%
Seventh Seraph Officer Revolver Worthy 22 1.0%
Seventh Seraph VY-7 Worthy 20 0.9%
Berenger's Memory Arrivals 20 0.9%
Seventh Seraph SI-2 Worthy 20 0.9%
True Prophecy Worthy 19 0.8%
Falling Guillotine Arrivals 19 0.8%
False Promises Arrivals 18 0.8%
Seventh Seraph Saw Worthy 18 0.8%
Distant Tumulus Worthy 17 0.8%
Escape Velocity Worthy 16 0.7%
First In, Last Out Arrivals 15 0.7%
Whispering Slab Arrivals 15 0.7%
Enigma's Draw Worthy 14 0.6%
Timelines' Vertex Worthy 14 0.6%
Honor's Edge Worthy 14 0.6%
Hollow Words Arrivals 14 0.6%
Dire Promise Worthy 13 0.6%
Jian 7 Rifle Worthy 13 0.6%
Seventh Seraph CQC-12 Worthy 12 0.5%
Ikelos_SR_V1.0.2 Arrivals 12 0.5%
Cold Denial Arrivals 11 0.5%
Seventh Seraph Carbine Worthy 10 0.4%
Interference VI Worthy 9 0.4%
Temptation's Hook Arrivals 8 0.4%
*Bad Omens is not a Prophecy weapon, but this is explained later
Note: While Prophecy is not a Season, these weapons dropped at a different rate than other Arrivals weapons, also explained later
[/spoiler]
Here is the percentage drop rate for weapons by season:
[spoiler]
Season Total Drop Rate
Worthy 231 10.3%
Arrivals 156 6.9%
Prophecy 439 19.5%
Chosen 336 14.9%
Splicer 656 29.2%
Lost 432 19.2%
[/spoiler]
As I was crunching these numbers, most seasons dropped all of their weapons at a statistically constant drop rate, however, Arrivals was a clear exception. I found that not only the original Prophecy weapons dropped at a higher rate than the rest, but also that Bad Omens dropped at a higher rate similar to the Prophecy weapons. For the purposes of this analysis, I grouped Bad Omens with Prophecy (which is different than how I grouped it for the first 1000 originally). I did this because the average drop rate for each Prophecy weapon was 2.8%, which happens to be exactly the same as Bad Omens, leading me to believe it is in that loot pool.
Conclusions:
1. You can expect to get approximately 1 Enhancement Core for every 3 Gunsmith levels you gain assuming you dismantle the weapon.
2. Drop Rate of weapons is not completely random and favors more recent seasons to earlier seasons. Specifically, Splicer weapons drop at a much higher rate than others.
3. From my testing, certain weapons tended to drop more often than others, even within the same Season group. While most of this is most likely tied to RNG, Season of Arrivals clearly is not equal RNG for all weapons.
Edit1: Thanks to everyone for the comments and feedback, I wasn't expecting so many people would be interested in something that will go away in a month. I have finished tabulating the results from the remaining 1250 drops and incorporated those to the drop rates which have changed, most changed slightly. Here are some additional comments/findings:
1. As stated, most drop rate percentages changed slightly, but the largest change was Cartesian Coordinate that was bumped from 3.1% to 4.1%, meaning I was pretty unlucky with the first 1000 drops if I wanted a Cartesian Coordinate.
2. I am confident that my list is the entire loot pool for Banshee-44, meaning if you want a weapon that is not on that list, you are out of luck. The odds of there being another weapon that drops from Banshee-44 are 1.8x10^-20, or approximately 1 in 55 quintillion, so I think this is thorough enough.
3. I saw some comments about how the drop rates are actually the same for all weapons and that I just got a random selection that favored some weapons. While I think the first 1000 drops was sufficient in showing that weapons from certain seasons drops more often than other seasons, after completing the data for all 2250 weapons, the same trend holds and the gap between seasons becomes much more apparent. For example, the most common weapon I saw from Season of the Worthy was the Seventh Seraph Office Revolver at 1.0% and least common weapon I saw from Season of the Splicer is The Vision at 3.6%. This is a huge difference and cannot be ignored statistically, it is similar to how to The Other Half sword is dropped at a reduced rate, even though it is in the same RNG loot pool from Xur.
4. Season of Arrivals is extremely puzzling to me, my best guess is that even though the Prophecy weapons were released in Arrivals, they weren't added to the World Loot Pool until this season, which is why the drop rate is higher, that's just purely speculation.
5. Bad Omens is a very interesting outlier and I have a theory. Bad Omens and Hoosegow are currently the only Rocket Launchers in the World Loot Pool. My theory is that the weapon type of the Ritual weapon drops at a higher rate than other weapons, which is Rocket Launchers for this season. This is 100% speculation, but it is the only reason why I can think it drops at a significantly higher rate that other Arrivals weapons.
Please keep up the comments and feedback! I was told I should post this on Reddit, which I plan to do, haven't used Reddit very often, so it may not be today.
Edit2: I posted to Reddit in case anyone was wondering, it has the same title as this forum post.
English
#destiny2
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This is lovely. Though my drop rates for 145 packages was so heavily lopsided that I don't think I really get what you got. 15 of the same shotgun 10s of others, and 4 annual skates. Like what's the % logic here...?
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200k gun smith materials!? I would be embarrassed to share that. Get a job or go outside.
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I can always appreciate folks who put in the time to crunch down numbers and show us just what is what. Many thanks from the Merchant’s Guild.
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You've put more effort into this than Bungie has in the game.
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Wow, that is some serious dedication to statistics. I thought about trying something similar when I started from 84k gunsmith mats and around 1400 telemetries, but realized I would be sacrificing my sanity in the process. So, I thank you for your sacrifice in getting these stats - definitely interesting. I did do a before/after on shards and cores, but don't remember the exact numbers. The approximate numbers were right in the same neighborhood as yours. I kept a handful of weapons, and even replaced a couple of previously-masterworked rolls, which netted me a handful of extra cores from dismantling the old rolls.
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how the -blam!- did you guys has so many Gunsmith materials, 1000 Gunsmith materials is all i have.
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I want that Contingency Plan you got.
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Editado por Jamestown01010: 1/27/2022 6:02:22 PMThanks for the analysis. I knew it would be a waste of time cashing in 84k
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Incredible work! I've never gotten a Cold Denial ever until it was dropping from DoE one week. I had no idea Banshee even dropped it.
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The quality and detail in this post is unmatched for where it's at. Your conclusion is very interesting, and I'm wondering what umbral drops (not decoded) next season could look like for whatever ritual weapon is there
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Weird flex but ok👍
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Science man
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Good job, never mind the begrudgers and naysayers.
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I got a nasty timeless vertex with projection fuse, range masterwork, firmly planted, elemental capacitor. Thing maps people inside of PvP.
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Gods work
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Do you think that if someone with a large number of gunsmith materials did this, they would see the same distribution? Does an individual's "RNG" play into this at all? Would be interesting to find out. Anyone else have a boatload of Gunsmith materials and a lot of time?
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Editado por KayOsS882: 1/26/2022 3:22:57 AMI got an annual skate Extended mag Triple tap Dragonfly Is that any good for pve?
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Interesting stuff. Personally dropped just under 70k materials hoping to maybe get a FTTC + Vorpal Seraph Carbine. Ended up with the exact roll I wanted but on the Revolver instead lol.
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This has confirmed it for me. I'll be letting my gunsmith materials be auto removed/dismantled with the launch of WQ.
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[quote]2. Drop Rate of weapons is not completely random and favors more recent seasons to earlier seasons. Specifically, Splicer weapons drop at a much higher rate than others.[/quote] This lines up with statements from TWABs/patch notes while sunsetting was active, the goal being players had a higher chance of getting gear with longer lifespans. The seasonal drop weighting was probably not reverted after sunset ended.
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I had about 100k gunsmith mats and have gone thru about 50k or so and man the amount of energy weapons that drop are easily 3 to one. I’m hoping for a whispering slab because for some reason I dismantled my old one but with only 2 drops out of 50k it’s not looking to promising. Great job on the break down by the way👍🏽
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No wonder I haven’t had a Dire Promise drop in the last 2 seasons… makes it worse when it’s the only one I’m chasing at the moment… sigh
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Great information! Thanks for exposing this
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(Whistle sound)
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Nice work. I had 23,000 gun smith materials and started turning them in. I am not strictly keeping track but i can verify that splicer weapons are dropping more than others. Thanks for the info.
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More rewarding than playing the game then