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Destiny 2

Discusión sobre Destiny 2
Editado por InfernalDegree0: 1/27/2022 2:35:07 AM
37

I spent 200k+ Gunsmith Materials and gained 2250 Gunsmith Ranks in 5 hours. Here are the results.

*Edit notes at end* Materials Spent: 213750 Gunsmith Materials (this includes spending materials returned upon dismantle and assumes I dismantled all weapons) 5400 Weapon Telemetries Reputation Gained: 2250 Gunsmith Ranks Resources Gained: 9000 Legendary Shards (assuming I dismantled all weapons) 766 Enhancement Cores 32 Finest Matterweaves 39 Rainmakers 24 Pure Matterglass Lens I wanted to share the results for a few reasons: 1. To help keep people's expectations in check regarding the weapons they will obtain from Banshee-44. 2. To understand what the true drop rates of weapons are, which can help us better understand Banshee-44 going into Witch Queen. 3. I like spreadsheets and numbers. 4. I suspected the droprates of weapons were not equal, and recording such a large number of data points would help confirm that suspicion. I only kept a small handful of weapons, these are the ones of note that I kept: [spoiler]Scathelocke: Extended Barrel Tactical/Appended Mag Subsistance Rampage Handling MW Stochastic Variable Polygonal Rifling Alloy/Appended/Light Mag Feeding Frenzy Multikill Clip Reload MW True Prophecy Crossfire HCS Steady Rounds Rangefinder Timed Payload Stability MW Memory Interdict Quick Launch Spike/Proximity Grenades Auto-Loading Holster Chain Reaction Handling MW The Deicide Barrel Shroud Steady Rounds Grave Robber One-Two Punch Stability MW Contingency Plan Hammer-Forged Rifling Accurized Rounds Tunnel Vision Kill Clip Stability MW Annual Skate HitMark HCS Appended Mag Triple Tap Timed Payload Reload MW[/spoiler] Here is the percentage drop rate for each individual weapon for all 2250 drops: [spoiler] Weapon Season Total Drop Rate The Number Splicer 102 4.5% Crown-Splitter Splicer 98 4.4% Stochastic Variable Splicer 97 4.3% The Deicide Splicer 95 4.2% Pleiades Corrector Splicer 95 4.2% Cartesian Coordinate Chosen 93 4.1% Scathelocke Lost 90 4.0% Memory Interdict Splicer 89 4.0% Eternal Blazon Chosen 88 3.9% Legal Action II Lost 82 3.6% The Vision Splicer 80 3.6% Retrofuturist Chosen 79 3.5% Widow's Bite Prophecy 77 3.4% Tarantula Chosen 76 3.4% Annual Skate Lost 69 3.1% Hoosegow Prophecy 68 3.0% Spoiler Alert Lost 68 3.0% Contingency Plan Lost 64 2.8% Negative Space Prophecy 63 2.8% Ikelos_SG_V1.0.2 Prophecy 63 2.8% Bad Omens Prophecy* 62 2.8% Shepherd's Watch Lost 59 2.6% Ikelos_HC_V1.0.2 Prophecy 55 2.4% Death Adder Prophecy 51 2.3% Ikelos_SMG_V1.0.2 Arrivals 24 1.1% Seventh Seraph Officer Revolver Worthy 22 1.0% Seventh Seraph VY-7 Worthy 20 0.9% Berenger's Memory Arrivals 20 0.9% Seventh Seraph SI-2 Worthy 20 0.9% True Prophecy Worthy 19 0.8% Falling Guillotine Arrivals 19 0.8% False Promises Arrivals 18 0.8% Seventh Seraph Saw Worthy 18 0.8% Distant Tumulus Worthy 17 0.8% Escape Velocity Worthy 16 0.7% First In, Last Out Arrivals 15 0.7% Whispering Slab Arrivals 15 0.7% Enigma's Draw Worthy 14 0.6% Timelines' Vertex Worthy 14 0.6% Honor's Edge Worthy 14 0.6% Hollow Words Arrivals 14 0.6% Dire Promise Worthy 13 0.6% Jian 7 Rifle Worthy 13 0.6% Seventh Seraph CQC-12 Worthy 12 0.5% Ikelos_SR_V1.0.2 Arrivals 12 0.5% Cold Denial Arrivals 11 0.5% Seventh Seraph Carbine Worthy 10 0.4% Interference VI Worthy 9 0.4% Temptation's Hook Arrivals 8 0.4% *Bad Omens is not a Prophecy weapon, but this is explained later Note: While Prophecy is not a Season, these weapons dropped at a different rate than other Arrivals weapons, also explained later [/spoiler] Here is the percentage drop rate for weapons by season: [spoiler] Season Total Drop Rate Worthy 231 10.3% Arrivals 156 6.9% Prophecy 439 19.5% Chosen 336 14.9% Splicer 656 29.2% Lost 432 19.2% [/spoiler] As I was crunching these numbers, most seasons dropped all of their weapons at a statistically constant drop rate, however, Arrivals was a clear exception. I found that not only the original Prophecy weapons dropped at a higher rate than the rest, but also that Bad Omens dropped at a higher rate similar to the Prophecy weapons. For the purposes of this analysis, I grouped Bad Omens with Prophecy (which is different than how I grouped it for the first 1000 originally). I did this because the average drop rate for each Prophecy weapon was 2.8%, which happens to be exactly the same as Bad Omens, leading me to believe it is in that loot pool. Conclusions: 1. You can expect to get approximately 1 Enhancement Core for every 3 Gunsmith levels you gain assuming you dismantle the weapon. 2. Drop Rate of weapons is not completely random and favors more recent seasons to earlier seasons. Specifically, Splicer weapons drop at a much higher rate than others. 3. From my testing, certain weapons tended to drop more often than others, even within the same Season group. While most of this is most likely tied to RNG, Season of Arrivals clearly is not equal RNG for all weapons. Edit1: Thanks to everyone for the comments and feedback, I wasn't expecting so many people would be interested in something that will go away in a month. I have finished tabulating the results from the remaining 1250 drops and incorporated those to the drop rates which have changed, most changed slightly. Here are some additional comments/findings: 1. As stated, most drop rate percentages changed slightly, but the largest change was Cartesian Coordinate that was bumped from 3.1% to 4.1%, meaning I was pretty unlucky with the first 1000 drops if I wanted a Cartesian Coordinate. 2. I am confident that my list is the entire loot pool for Banshee-44, meaning if you want a weapon that is not on that list, you are out of luck. The odds of there being another weapon that drops from Banshee-44 are 1.8x10^-20, or approximately 1 in 55 quintillion, so I think this is thorough enough. 3. I saw some comments about how the drop rates are actually the same for all weapons and that I just got a random selection that favored some weapons. While I think the first 1000 drops was sufficient in showing that weapons from certain seasons drops more often than other seasons, after completing the data for all 2250 weapons, the same trend holds and the gap between seasons becomes much more apparent. For example, the most common weapon I saw from Season of the Worthy was the Seventh Seraph Office Revolver at 1.0% and least common weapon I saw from Season of the Splicer is The Vision at 3.6%. This is a huge difference and cannot be ignored statistically, it is similar to how to The Other Half sword is dropped at a reduced rate, even though it is in the same RNG loot pool from Xur. 4. Season of Arrivals is extremely puzzling to me, my best guess is that even though the Prophecy weapons were released in Arrivals, they weren't added to the World Loot Pool until this season, which is why the drop rate is higher, that's just purely speculation. 5. Bad Omens is a very interesting outlier and I have a theory. Bad Omens and Hoosegow are currently the only Rocket Launchers in the World Loot Pool. My theory is that the weapon type of the Ritual weapon drops at a higher rate than other weapons, which is Rocket Launchers for this season. This is 100% speculation, but it is the only reason why I can think it drops at a significantly higher rate that other Arrivals weapons. Please keep up the comments and feedback! I was told I should post this on Reddit, which I plan to do, haven't used Reddit very often, so it may not be today. Edit2: I posted to Reddit in case anyone was wondering, it has the same title as this forum post.
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