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Discusión sobre Destiny 2
Editado por Wes: 3/12/2020 3:50:07 AM
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Wes
Wes

Hunters are Fine

Here's some cold hard math for you, as of March 2020, using the most commonly accepted criteria for an outlier (i.e., an outlier must exceed the mean plus or minus twice the standard deviation): K/D by Subclass: Arcstrider: 1.3658 Nightstalker: 1.3152 Stormcaller: 1.313 Striker: 1.2656 Gunslinger: 1.2787 Voidwalker: 1.2472 Sentinel: 1.2444 Dawnblade: 1.2419 Sunbreaker: 1.2032 Average: 1.275 Standard Devation: 0.049202 Criteria for Upper Outlier: >1.373404 Criteria for Lower Outlier: <1.176596 Outliers: NONE Win Rate by Subclass: Arcstrider: 55.2341 Striker: 53.3734 Nightstalker: 53.105 Stormcaller: 52.8728 Sentinel: 51.1421 Voidwalker: 50.8981 Dawnblade: 50.7407 Sunbreaker: 49.3275 Gunslinger (What? A Hunter class at the bottom?): 48.4137 Average: 51.6786 Standard Deviation: 2.148795 Criteria for Upper Outlier: >55.97619 Criteria for Lower Outlier: <47.38101 Outliers: NONE. Note that Gunslinger, the MOST POPULAR SUBCLASS, had the LOWEST win rate and is consistently ranked among the bottom 3 subclasses in K/D (The above data is the most recent data point. Previous data points show Gunslinger placement alternating between the bottom 3.). So the trends show Arcstrider at the top, but second and third place fluctuating between Warlock and Titan classes. The gaps between the classes on average is small, with no statistical outlier. This is the case for all data points. (I've just shown the most recent one here.) So what does this mean? All the classes are operating close to the average. It means that the trends formed by each subclass are a result of inherent strengths and weaknesses within the subclass, rather than the class itself. If the Hunter class was an issue, Gunslinger wouldn't have been in the bottom ranked classes between Decemeber and Feburary in terms of K/D, and it certainly wouldn't be at the very bottom in terms of win rate. Heck. Right now Gunslinger is right in the middle in terms of K/D. There are also zero statistical outliers. So, if like everyone else on here, you decide to use statistics to determine class adjustments, Hunters are fine. I could do an average across all data points since Decemeber, but considering when there were peaks in Hunter performance there were peaks in the performance of other subclasses, the result would be the same: no outliers. Gunslinger near the bottom or in the middle. And as a Hunter main, I know very well what happens next on these forums. So have fun. At least be nice to eachother. Edit: [spoiler]Guardian.gg has the data. I believe my data point is from today on console. Also, this data is more focused on discrediting the "The stats say Hunter is OP" arguement. Say it's OP all you want. The stats say it fits within the mean. [/spoiler] Edit: [spoiler]I'm well aware of the effects of sample size and inter-subclass variances. (For those of you that don't, a larger sample size means the "measured" mean is more representative of the "real" mean. As a quick example, that means that the placement of Gunslinger is fairly concrete, but Arcstrider could very well be over-represented, as it is played much less. Taking into account sample sizes will likely bring down Arcstrider, while cementing the places of Stormcaller and Nightstalker.) However, I do not have the raw data for these points. I don't think it's publically available. In a perfect world, I could do a proper ANOVA method. But we don't have that luxury. This post is more to discredit the "Stats say Hunters are OP" argument, and it suits its purpose. [/spoiler] Edit: Removed comp stats because they're glitched on guardian.gg. Edit for Clarification: [spoiler]As far as the stats, they're only good for the purpose of discrediting the "The stats say Hunter are OP argument." If we wanted the actually statistically rank the effectiveness of each subclass in comparison to one another, we'd need to do an ANOVA table, as sample size plays a large role in inter-subclass variances. So what that means is that while the data of classes with high populations like Gunslinger and Voidwalker are probably fairly representative of the class, the other classes may move up or down once inter-subclass variances are taken into account with an ANOVA method. Since we can't take the inter-subclass variances into account, the only conclusion we can draw is "The data presented by guardian.gg does not indicate a significant outlier." Unfortunately, we can't statistically rank the effectiveness of each class apples-to-apples. Sure wish we could though.[/spoiler]

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  • I accept your reasoning with the numbers but if this is really what you say then according to your numbers void warlocks didn't need a nerf because they are in the bottom half in both category

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    • Editado por Pr0t0Zer0: 3/13/2020 12:30:21 AM
      I used to think titans were op in crucible. So I made one. To me i think each are equally viable and cater to different playstyles and really need to be decided on "whats best" on an individual basis. Its now easier than ever to grind out three characters. If you think one of ems op by all means grind it out and try it.

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      • It amuses me people are still trying to refute this.

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      • It's not rocket science people. Hunters aren't most played because they have some crazy advantage with no disadvantage. It's really simple figuring out why hunters are the most played. Talk to a few hunter mains and gather some info. They either fall into the super weeb and/or edgelord category or they might just main other dps/rogue classes in other games and with the description for hunter and having the name hunter made them feel like it was a dps/rogue type class. The hunter class like any otherdps/rogue class has been the most popular role in any game. It's hard naming a game where this isn't the case. Ask a titan main or a warlock main the same thing and you'll get similar results. Most probably play the class cause its appealing to their play style with the sound of the description and name. Each class has advantages and disadvantages, if you cant see the advantages that your class has you either need to look deeper or get better and learn more about your class (sorry if that's sounding like git gud).

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      • Math is fun but you still show a hunter class at the top of all of your metrics. And about 35% of the top classes are hunters. Sweet jumps, agile, invisibility, damn near invincibility when in super, fast ability recharge.... how are they not the bungie baby?

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        • I'm a fan of statistics, but the data is skewed. The vast majority of good PVP players use Hunter because of general maneuverability, which increases the K/D and win rate of Hunters overall. I'm not saying that Hunters need any sort of buff, because I think they are in a decent spot, but it is worth noting that statistics are not always a good representation of what is actually going on.

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          • 2
            Agreed Nerf to the ground

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          • @Wes - while I agree with your overall approach, I believe you're omitting one very important factor from your analysis. Win rates are indeed statistically close, however in a zero-sum ranked game, those can add up to a skewed distribution such as Pareto or power law. That's how a mere 2% advantage can lead to disproportionally many hunters at the top of the ranks, as some have pointed out (even if intuitively.) In other words, if you picked the top 100 best players, and 60% of them turn out to be hunters, then we might have a problem. Note that this is different from saying "if 60% of players are Hunters then of course 60% of the top 100 players will be Hunters." That would be true for a [i]random[/i] sample of 100. The extremes have been affected by a selection process and samples there are no longer random. I could point to examples in nature or society, but why bother when we had a perfect case with Luna's and NF right here? It was a great demonstration of power law (colloquially known as "the rich get richer.") People with pre-nerf Lunas/NF (and later Recluse) served as a gate to those without, further increasing the gap. This effect will manifest itself with any advantage of one trait in a population, big or small. It will just be faster if the difference is large. This part of your argument I do agree with - the difference of 2% is not large enough for Bungie to have to address the class balance all that often, and once a season seems to do the trick so far. However, I do believe they might want to look into the ranking system (Glory, in this case.) The win vs. loss points need to reflect the boundaries of what is acceptable win rate variation. Right now that doesn't seem to be the case, leading to a disproportionately large Hunter population in high ranked comp. Ideally, something like [url=https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/NIPS2006_0688.pdf]TrueSkill[/url] could be a much better choice, or even Glicko-2 since the former is patented. One other factor that I haven't seen in your analysis is the class distribution across the entire population, not just PvP, as well as the percent of the population that is PvP focused. Either that, or total time (across the entire player base) spent in PvE and PvP. If we see a similar distribution of classes in PvE as we do in PvP than the counter argument that "hunters are most popular because they are the best for PvP" simply wouldn't hold water. And if PvP and PvE class distributions are significantly different, then that would be an argument for separating the sandboxes, as nerfing an overperforming class in one sandbox would place it even lower in the other.

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            • kid stfu noob, everyone knows hunters are o.p, the coveted 'Smoke and grenade' combo is abused, camping with invisible shotgun, waaaayyyyyy to used. If you played crucible for once without a shotgun or hunter you wouldn't have said all that bull. They need to rework hunters. Now. The most used character is a hunter, the most used guns are hand cannons and shotguns. Do you not realise why????? They are o.p af. Some hand cannons aren't but considering a hand cannon that can be so easily grinned you could get 10 a day if you wanted (Spare rations), can outpace any exotic and both pinnacle hand cannons now, is bs. People grinned for over 100 hours to get a -blam!-ing not forgotten and its outpaced by a gun you can get in 30 mins. What I'm trying to say is in d2 if its used a lot, its o.p. The most common load out today is Spare Rations and Mindbenders, and ward cliff. The most common. And each of those weapons are -blam!-ing o.p like hell. In conclusion, hunters are the most used character. Therefore they are o.p. Spectral blades, insane length of a super, insane speed, insane dmg, AND you remain invisible the whole time. Arcblade, can reflect ALL dmg done to it, has insane range, insane dmg, and insane speed. Night stalker can now 1 shot with the quiver full of arrows, making it the same as a golden gun. Not only that you now have a one shot melee at range. Im not saying that Titans and Warlocks do not have o.p stuff, cos they do. But hunters have something o.p on every subclass or something ridiculously strong with no skill needed.

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              • Editado por spideyfreak83: 3/10/2020 6:40:47 AM
                So ummm...... Nerf hunters 👍😋

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                • Editado por Giggles: 3/12/2020 1:14:48 AM
                  You are using the wrong logic to justify hunters. Your looking solely at win rate by class. You need to assume and allow for team composition. If your team as 4 out of 6 players as hunters running X class then that changes the entire argument. Seeing hunters are the most overused class in the game, most likely every match will comprise a majority hunters using X classes. Only takes 1 arc strider and 1 nightstalker to destroy the entire match. There in lies the problem. The actual class is so over tuned no one that PVP's will use anything but. When you now can jump so high you trigger the out of bounds warning and cannot even be seen (check video out by Frostbolt), you change the entire dynamic of the game. Since all Bunjie plays are hunters, it will be like this till the end of the game....oh wait that was season 10 so now maybe it will all just go the way of attunement of hunger and just get devoured. See what I did there???? :)

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                  • We shouldn't be nerfing class abilities. This is a game about space magic and zombie warriors. Sincerely, A Titan

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                    • Titans mad

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                    • Hunter Mains: Dats Facts Titans Mains (PvP Crybabys): *Gets Triggered*

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                    • To all the people downvoting: Oh no, is generic complaint #47 people use to prop up their fragile egos easily disprovable by observing actual trend data? Never mind, you’re right. Statistics and mathematical analysis has nothing on your initial reaction to strategies you probably have never used in order to understand their weaknesses.

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                    • Lmao at 0 downvotes because people refuse to get better with their class

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                    • Looks pretty fair to me.

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                    • Skill gap. That is all.

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                    • OK good, now grab the total number of players, then grab their most used classes and average them out.

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                    • Bottom tree arcstrider is definitely not fine any more. They done killed it good.

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                    • HUNTERS ARE FINE *loads one match of Survival* Hmm, literally EVERYONE is a 100 mobility Hunter using Spare Rations / Mindbenders and St0mp-EE5. Geez, it's almost like that's the most OP build or something...

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                      • Hunters are fine, but Australia is not... January: Fires February: Floods March: The Great Toilet Roll Famine

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                        • 2 of 3 hunter subclasses fill the top 3 spots of EVERY category and you don't think that's a problem? that's a reflection of ease of use and natural advantage in PvP. Optimally there should be one subclass for each main class in the top three of each category at all times. When that happens then the classes are equal.

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                          • Still most used class. And bungie always nerfs things that are the most used. Once trials starts and it’s 5/6 hunters every game. Those numbers will change a lot and bungie will be forced to hit hunters with the nerf gun. I played all three classes.

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                          • go into trials this weekend and see how many teams of triple invis sniping hunters you'll be playing!! yep, sure they are fine lol

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                            • That doesn’t say anything about how many more players use hunters though lol

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