I understand that some weapons either can only be earned on the hard setting or very rarely drop on normal. But if I was really aiming to get the foil or timepiece should I run normal mode first or just jump to hard mode?
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Running hard mode first makes the chances of getting excotic bigger. You can get double exotic drops at Atheon if you start at 30. Also the chests have slightly increased exotic drop chance.
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It's random. Gotta keep running the raid, normal, then hard.
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Well for those weapons, you are going to have to attempt it on hard. Those weapons are actually only rewarded by playing the raid on hard.