I know things are strict as hell over there... I don't know how I have never even gotten a warning.
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From what I've learned if you: are a friend of a mod, are a mod, don't insult 343i, don't insult Halo4 many times, don't question horrible decisions, don't harm some of the mods' imaginary sense of honor, don't troll in a way that is negative towards 343i or Halo4, or don't use regular non-vulgar words like "retard" then you will not be banned. Either that, or you're just plain lucky that only the few sane moderators see your posts.