[quote][b]Posted by:[/b] Mutoid Log [quote]Wait, what? Uncertainty is lowered more for an unpredictable outcome compared to a predicted outcome? Also, the lower the sigma, the higher the MU gain? No, look again.[/quote]Did you just ignore the graphs and formulas from the MS website I linked to? I'll go over it, step by step. Let the unexpected outcome happen. Lower teammate sigma -> Lower C. muWinner lower(muWinner-muLoser)/C lower (muWinner-muLoser)/C + higher epsilon/C -> higher v(t,e) Lower C2 -> higher sigma2/C2 higher sigma2/C2 & higher v(t,e) -> higher sigma2/C * v(t,e) -> Mu changes more. More unexpected result -> uWinner-uLoser is smaller -> w(t,e) is higher -> 1-w(t,e) is lower -> final sigma is lower. And if that for some reason isn't enough for you, go play around with [url=http://atom.research.microsoft.com/trueskill/rankcalculator.aspx]the trueSkill calculator from the MS website[/url] and observe that every time you reduce the sigma of someone in an unexpected win, the others gain/lose more mu and lose more sigma. And when switching the result from expected to unexpected, sigma loss is increased. In expected results, the Cs inside and outside the v() function go against each other, neutralising or reducting change when sigma reduces. But since the big gains are in unexpected results, getting the most out them is the fastest way to level up. The primary point of losing is not to lose sigma, it is to lose mu. Because of the teammate's lower mu, the new player gets more credit for beating worse opponents. Also, the low mu makes them able to play the most legit low-level players that trueSkill would normally make them avoid due to the high starting mu (and as we know, "most legit"->low sigma-> lower enemy mu->lower). A new account isn't able to play the most legit players at their own mu, thanks to Bungie's 10 level search range. The constant losing creates unexpected results until the quitter finally reaches the skill level that corresponds to a player who always quits. The sigma is changes as follows: [b]new sigma = old sigma*sqrt(1-(old sigma^2*w(t,e)/c^2)) + tau[/b]. When a player's sigma converges, the amount of sigma lost due to multiplication must be the same as tau. And unexpected results lead to a lower multiplier, which means that the 'convergent' sigma must also be lower so that the loss is equal to tau. The key here is that while the very final, converging sigma is the same for all levels and skills, the quitter is only on his way to his true level from a higher level. Because of this, he gets more unexpected results, which result in a lower sigma along the way. At the mentioned level 10, he still isn't as low as he will eventually end up at, and thus his sigma is lower than the sigma of a true legit level 10.[/quote] al leuaulualeulaue- What!?!?!