It seems that way...they are still gonna force me to buy the annual pass if I want to buy the shadowfell. And I just don't want the annual pass. It doesn't appeal to me at all.
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the fall dlc is 35 according to their live interview, and it includes the season pass for the fall. The other season's can be bought individually at your own choosing. (you could choose none of them)
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you don't need any xpac to play shadowkeep if that's what you're saying