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7/29/2018 8:06:27 AM
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Doesn't change anything I said. You said, "change it to at least 50/50." My point is that even if the odds are 50/50, incredibly long stretches of undesirable outcomes are possible. Each time the die is rolled you have an equal chance of one or the other. When you don't get the blight, it doesn't affect your chances on the next roll, just as getting the drill 15 times previously has absolutely no bearing on the next roll. This is what's known as a stochastic instance. Flip a coin 10 times. Logic says you should get heads 5 times. You probably won't. Repeat this 100 times. Sometimes you'll get heads twice, another time you might get 8, but logic says the average of your 100 sets of 10 will be around 5. There is a good chance it won't. Each flip is its own instance with no relation to the previous or following flips allowing for insanely lucky or unlucky outcomes. This is what allowed some people to get the Gjallarhorn their first time in VoG while players like me never got it as reward after more than 1000 hours in Destiny. My point is this: raising the odds should in theory help with the problem. For some it will and for others it won't and it could potentially have no effect at all, because of the nature of stochastic instances. My point is people need to understand this and ask for better solutions than changing probability values, because even if the odds are raised to 90%, you can still fall into the unlucky 10% 10 times in a row. We need a DNG (deterministic number generator) in Destiny that takes previous rolls into account, or a deterministic system like three of coins that increases odds each roll until the desired outcome occurs, and THEN resets.
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