They'd lie to cover up the fact that they've screwed the pooch with this while they work on a fix without losing face in the meantime.
They expect the community is dumb enough to fall for it instead of running the numbers, they might be right going from some of these posts.
Bungie has lied in the past over many things, I still remember the sbmm lies back in D1.
Bungie isn't a reliable source of information
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How do you screw up probability? That's an easy thing to code. If it's more likely to get the cabal excavation event then that means it's done intentionally, and they would most likely just say that and then fix it.