Work out the odds of 15 cabal in a row 😂 then bear in min it was same last weekend too
English
-
Doesn't change anything I said. You said, "change it to at least 50/50." My point is that even if the odds are 50/50, incredibly long stretches of undesirable outcomes are possible. Each time the die is rolled you have an equal chance of one or the other. When you don't get the blight, it doesn't affect your chances on the next roll, just as getting the drill 15 times previously has absolutely no bearing on the next roll. This is what's known as a stochastic instance. Flip a coin 10 times. Logic says you should get heads 5 times. You probably won't. Repeat this 100 times. Sometimes you'll get heads twice, another time you might get 8, but logic says the average of your 100 sets of 10 will be around 5. There is a good chance it won't. Each flip is its own instance with no relation to the previous or following flips allowing for insanely lucky or unlucky outcomes. This is what allowed some people to get the Gjallarhorn their first time in VoG while players like me never got it as reward after more than 1000 hours in Destiny. My point is this: raising the odds should in theory help with the problem. For some it will and for others it won't and it could potentially have no effect at all, because of the nature of stochastic instances. My point is people need to understand this and ask for better solutions than changing probability values, because even if the odds are raised to 90%, you can still fall into the unlucky 10% 10 times in a row. We need a DNG (deterministic number generator) in Destiny that takes previous rolls into account, or a deterministic system like three of coins that increases odds each roll until the desired outcome occurs, and THEN resets.
-
I wonder if someone with more time and patience than me would watch the PE when the quest is not active, to see if the same unlikely streaks happen then? Personally, I think they have tweaked it somehow to make the taken event much rarer, thus making the whisper harder to obtain. No problem with hard to obtain stuff, I’m unlikely to get catalyst because I’m not good enough! No problem with that, but one of my clan mates has sat on io for about 8 hours today and yesterday, and had 2/3 taken events 😂 That’s not the sort of difficulty I find enjoyable.
-
I think that they use one system for all RNG that can be manipulated beyond adjusting a base odd of occuring, that can be made to have "stutters" in the system. For example, if the odds are 1-50 "yes" and 51-100 "no," then they can cause a new roll to fall withing a margin for a certain number of rolls. So if the RNG rolls a 68 and the margin is 20, the next 10 (or whatever they decide) rolls would be within 48 and 88, giving you a 2% chance of "yes" the next 10 rolls. It's the easiest way I can think of to load the dice and not have to do anything else to game the system, while it still looks hypothetically totally random from the outside. From a programming standpoint, this is how I think they do it. It would allow for easy behind the scenes manipulation in favor of or (it seems most often) working against the player. This is something I've been trying to figure out since Vanilliny 1, and I hope it makes sense. It does inside my brain cage.
-
Yeah, the logic makes perfect sense. But if this (or another method) is what they do, then makes no sense as a player. I’d be fine with pure RNG, I get that still means 3 or 4 cabal events (for example) will still happen, and more frequently than most people would expect. Once it starts into double figures though, and several times, does make me wonder what they are up to 😂 On the flip side I must have had 7 or 8 taken in row last weekend when I got it. That was great, but I’d happily have swapped it for for a couple every hour or so all the way through. Could have actually helped some of my clan with it this weekend 😢
-
I'm actually not fine with pure RNG. I was one of those that played reguarly and never got the Gjallarhorn to drop. I believe that a system where there are items you may theoritically never get is bullshit. I think every roll for anything should be like three of coins and always increase the odds, no matter how slight, that you can eventually get the good outcome. There are exotics that you have to jump through dozens of hoops to get, that I won't get. I'm OK with that because I don't want to go to the trouble, but I know I can get it if I choose to. I think the game should be a nice ballance of quests and pseudo-RNG that inches toward certainty with dilligence. I think pure RNG sucks, but I think this event proves that they're using a shadier, or at least imprecise and ineffective (but most likely shadier) means of toying with the RNG. There are people that play regularly and don't have an Antiope while I've received three in one day. While that's possible in a purely random system it's really, really improbable. I know the improbable happens more often than you'd think, but this event really seems to point to the dice being loaded.