You forgot one thing.
According to destinytracker.com, there were around 800k PvE players yesterday. That's 0.8 million. Every day there's most likely going to be 1 guy who gets that luck. That one guy is bound to come on here to complain about it because it seems ridiculous.
So really, this isn't that unlikely at all.
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Those events are global public events and have nothing to do with how many are logged in. In fact the same code triggers for PC, Xbox and PS. You can fast travel back to same areas, it's still the same event. There has been public timers for destiny for 4 years. Telling you when an event would occur in the area, they couldn't tell you what, because it ran through their code. Those events are not different for anybody. They are same. When last Sunday I was waiting 8 hours for a Blight event, I was watching 2 other streamers at the time on different platforms getting the same cabal events in a row. There chats were blowing up with Cabal again? Sorry your understanding of how those events work is not correct.
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Huh. Didn't know that. One thing you still need to account for however is the player bias. Not many people are talking about when it DOES work 50/50 because they aren't even thinking about it. The only times you ever hear about it is when something ridiculous happens, and since there are 24 hours in a day that's somewhat likely.