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7/28/2018 8:48:31 PM
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You can say that all you want, but in a 50/50 RNG, assuming they are equal rather than 2/3 blights, then getting +20 in a row is around 1 in 2 million. So, having it happen twice in the span of two weekends is less than improbable...
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  • No. Wrong. False. Incorrect. A 50/50 chance is a coin flip. Go ahead and flop a coin 100 times and log the results. I'll wait. Kidding, no i won't. It won't come out even, 9 times out of 10. You have a 50/50 chance per [b][i]flip[/i][/b] and the odds for the next flip is in no way affected by the previous flip's results.

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  • It doesn't matter the odds of the individual toss. It's the probability of that many consecutive tosses. Don't try to logic...

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  • Edited by MONKEYGOTRABIES: 7/29/2018 9:11:41 AM
    ._................,,kjhyytgbvvffddessd

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  • After 100 flips you are no more or less likely to get a result that you prefer. After 100 or 1000 flips, its still 50/50 every single time

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  • P=(1/2)^n.

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  • I need to go back to school haha. Too advanced for my ass. Well, i am going back but still.

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  • That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that even with a RNG, the [b][i][u]probability[/u][/i][/b] of that many consecutive tosses is about 1 in 1.2 million. Even if something has 50/50 odds, the [b][i][u]probability of consecutive results[/u][/i][/b] is not 50/50.

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  • [quote]That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that even with a RNG, the [b][i][u]probability[/u][/i][/b] of that many consecutive tosses is about 1 in 1.2 million[/quote] Genuinely curious as to the math that went into getting that number [quote]Even if something has 50/50 odds, the [b][i][u]probability of consecutive results[/u][/i][/b] is not 50/50.[/quote] Im not sure what happened here, some sort of a miscommunication.... Because that's what I was trying to point out initially haha

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  • Edited by w3rdblader: 7/29/2018 3:34:10 AM
    Definitely seems like you either misread my first comment, or I mistyped it. My point was that, while a working system can generate the same PE over and over again, by the time it's at its 20th cabal event, it's pushing over a 1 in a million probability. The formula is shown in the other comment I made with this one. P=(1/2)^20

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  • Ok it makes more sense in context with n shown. And yeah im not sure what happened, but I'm in agreement with you. Sorry for the misunderstanding haha

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  • Yeah, by your logic, you're pretty much saying that we have a '50/50 chance of getting 20 heads in a row'. That's not how probablity works.

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  • No I never meant it that way. I was saying the opposite actually. What I meant was that each "flip", in this instance, had a 50/50 chance, but landing on heads 2 times in a row doesn't change the 50/50 chance of the 3rd flip.

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  • Care to elaborate since you're so much better at "logic-ing"

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  • Dont bring your factual statistics around here! How dare you!

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  • Edited by PilksUK: 7/28/2018 8:52:58 PM
    The PE Script could be global and handle all events on all planets even tho some do not take place on other planets which means the odds would not be 50/50 and would explain why streaks happen if the system creates a queue.

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  • Edited by w3rdblader: 7/28/2018 9:17:32 PM
    The more variables added just makes the odds that much worse. Due to the fact that no matter what else is added, there are still only two possibilities for what the event in that zone would be. If their code did work on a disqualifying fashion, ie there can't be a blight lost oasis if there had previously been one in giant scar, that would be an easily diagnosed and corrected issue. But that, in itself, doesn't make sense because the rupture is exclusively Excavation PE. It just seems like bungies honest response would be "yea, there's an issue with our system but it's low priority because it's content you weren't expecting and didn't have to pay extra."

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