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3/2/2018 9:08:20 PM
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Calculating the true player count

Before anyone downvotes me based on a narrative, I want to say that the numbers are based off the accounts login which means that each time you switch characters for the first time that week it counts as a login. Let us first look at Pve and Pvp numbers. 381,900 pve players and 158,700 pvp. Not bad. Now let’s give a percentage to each platform. Since PC is likely higher than last gen consoles, let’s estimate a 25% of all players are on pc. Next let’s look at last gen (ps3/x360). A more than fair judgement would be 15% but it is more likely <10%. Now for current gen which will arguably be the highest, at >65%. Next, since there are two games that are accounted for, d2 likely being higher, let’s give it 70% of logins and d1 30%. The destiny tracker numbers also account for d1 logins as well across three characters. Another step would be to give a percentage of players who login weekly with 1,2,or3 characters when they play. Profiles with one login would likely be the least percentage while 2 or 3 characters would be higher. To be fair I gave an even 33% to each profile to make it completely even. Lastly, and what I can’t calculate for is a sample size. To determine the legitimate player count, the sample size must consist of even amounts of players who play on each of the platforms and each of the games. Then, a more accurate scope of the player base will take shape. We also need to factor in how many player play both pvp and pve. I’ll give the same ratio to the current as that seems fair. It’s almost 3:1. So about 1/3rd of pvp plays pve as well. Here are my rough estimates. (No they are not accurate hence “estimates”) PC player count-9042 actual players Xbox one/ps4 player count-24501 actual players X360/ps3 player count-5406 actual players Now I’ve used my estimated percentages above and used them without a sample size meaning this is indeed very rough but close to the actual numbers. How I determined it. First I added both pve and pvp together. Then I used my estimated percentages for each platform (10% last gen, 25% pc, 65% current gen) and multiplied them by the total count (381900 pve, 158700 pvp). After that, I multiplied by .33( 33% for each profile with 1-3 characters). Then I divided by 2 (average character per account) and got the numbers I have now. Take them how you will. Until a legitimate sample size appears, or destinytracker is allowed to show the legitimate numbers, this is what we have to work with.
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  • Welp time to bleach my brain cuz that shit ain't hard proof math just mix 'n mash of bull[b]s[/b]hit estimates... [spoiler]IDK try using the destiny API that is publicly usable to find actual data of player count like ffs (even if said API is a finicky little whore)[/spoiler]

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