Is it really overconfidence or lack of innovation for this franchise? Either way they got lazy and could not deliver and is now using a business model that works.
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If Bungie just told us the truth they could just die faster... Think about it, Activision investors hear that Bungie is becoming a money sinkhole and eventually cut the contract. (Unless silver purchases make up enough money to not be a money sinkhole for Activision)
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I only see this happening If another 100,000 plus more players drop the completely. Even so I think Activision is holding that contract over their heads and Bungie is getting desperate at this point.