I'm pretty sure everyone who worked on Halo and D1 left after being told to scrap it all by Activision and the ones who were left, left after D1 launched. It was odd that they made a deal with Activision for 10 years, that meant they were so confident that the game would be a success.
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Is it really overconfidence or lack of innovation for this franchise? Either way they got lazy and could not deliver and is now using a business model that works.
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If Bungie just told us the truth they could just die faster... Think about it, Activision investors hear that Bungie is becoming a money sinkhole and eventually cut the contract. (Unless silver purchases make up enough money to not be a money sinkhole for Activision)
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I only see this happening If another 100,000 plus more players drop the completely. Even so I think Activision is holding that contract over their heads and Bungie is getting desperate at this point.