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Destiny 2

Discuss all things Destiny 2.
11/14/2017 9:35:32 AM
252

Exotic repeat odds defy logic

First I have the game on PS4 and PC, logging in about ten days played. On PC, I have opened around 35 Exotic engrams. Thirteen have been one item (the Prospector). That is 37%. The odds of this are so minute it isn't possible without a bug or it being engineered into game. RNG my A.S.S With a true RNG, there are roughly 25 items (guns and armor). That gives you a 4% chance to get an item. Since there is always 25 in the pool the 4% will never change. Say you want item x. Opening 20 engrams gives you a 55% chance of getting it. 30=70% 40=80% 50=87% 60=91% 70=94% calculated by a 96% chance of not getting it. 0.96 to the power of x (x being how many engrams) minus 1 then times -100 ex: 20 engrams 0.96^20=0.442 0.442-1=-0.557 -0.557x-100=55.7% chance to get x item in 20 engrams So getting 13 of the same item is almost impossible. LOL but it happened As a side note: I play the hunter and have farmed for the O rig legs on both platforms. Have done over 1,000 public events most heroic and have only gotten them once. Tracked PC events for the last 200. Only included heroic events and two fire team medallions running. There was a 6.5% drop rate of exotics. That is 13 in 200 events. While the sample size is small and I may have been very very unlucky it can give you an idea of how others are doing. Good luck to all on the grind.

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