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11/14/2017 9:35:32 AM
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Exotic repeat odds defy logic
First I have the game on PS4 and PC, logging in about ten days played. On PC, I have opened around 35 Exotic engrams. Thirteen have been one item (the Prospector). That is 37%. The odds of this are so minute it isn't possible without a bug or it being engineered into game. RNG my A.S.S With a true RNG, there are roughly 25 items (guns and armor). That gives you a 4% chance to get an item. Since there is always 25 in the pool the 4% will never change. Say you want item x. Opening 20 engrams gives you a 55% chance of getting it.
30=70%
40=80%
50=87%
60=91%
70=94%
calculated by a 96% chance of not getting it. 0.96 to the power of x (x being how many engrams) minus 1 then times -100 ex: 20 engrams 0.96^20=0.442 0.442-1=-0.557 -0.557x-100=55.7% chance to get x item in 20 engrams
So getting 13 of the same item is almost impossible. LOL but it happened
As a side note:
I play the hunter and have farmed for the O rig legs on both platforms. Have done over 1,000 public events most heroic and have only gotten them once. Tracked PC events for the last 200. Only included heroic events and two fire team medallions running. There was a 6.5% drop rate of exotics. That is 13 in 200 events. While the sample size is small and I may have been very very unlucky it can give you an idea of how others are doing.
Good luck to all on the grind.
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Edited by Orion: 12/11/2017 2:33:46 AMI've gotten Karnstein Armlets over 30 times now. what the frick Bungie... I don't even care that much anymore about what I get, I just expect it. Bungie, for once Fricken respond to one of these threads already.
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Rng is a cruel evil malicious religion.
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1 ReplyBut, do they defy Bungie logic? I think not.
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4 RepliesI'm so curious to see if bungie responds to this.😂
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I got five Merciless in a row as exotic rewards. Obviously, I haven’t played much since then.
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2 RepliesSaw a guy in the tower get 4 consecutive Coldhearts...had to laugh.
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Edited by Dr Livingston 9: 11/17/2017 7:01:43 PMit took me forever to get celestial nighthawk i just got it last night and i was playing almost every night since september!!. I see where you coming from Op I get a lot of duplicates. i want another curtain call and i have only gotten one and i was grinding strikes for a month.
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Edited by Dr Livingston 9: 11/17/2017 6:57:47 PMif anyone likes taking part in polls here is one on raids... https://www.bungie.net/en/Forums/Post/238568970?page=0&sort=0&showBanned=0&path=1 bungie seems to hide my posts. much appreciated. thanks!!! some people get so many people to respond to their polls. every post i do shows "showbanned" in the url.
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I could sell you some sweet business, hardlight, fighting Lion, My Black Friday item is the "Young Ahamkara's Spine" 2 for 1 all day
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Edited by Dabest: 11/17/2017 6:37:34 PMYeah, this game sucks.
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2 RepliesSquidGuy is number one.
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I cannot believe there is no Strike Specific Weapons/Armor. Destiny 2 beat my expectations except this & Exotics. If your reading this Bungie: - Why do you think we would want to keep doing the strikes over and over like I and 'all Guardians' did in Destiny 1? [b]Also; the exotics were way better in Destiny 1 and harder to get. Im sick of getting an Exotic Engram and have it be "the same Exotic ive received the last 10 times". Bring back Three of Coins PLEASE and make the exotics better; also more Exotic 'quests' with specific Exotic prizes.[/b] The Exotic weapons just dont compare to: "Thorn"; "Gjallarhorn", "Touch of Malice", "Sleeper Simulant"... my god I just looked at the Exotics list from Destiny 1 and those weapons were so special: https://www.destinygamewiki.com/wiki/Exotic_Weapons [b]But honestly; I know people that didnt play a different game than Destiny for a whole year that are already playing different games [moved on] and Destiny 2 came out September 6, 2017.[/b] [b][i]You have to bring back Strike Specific items and make the Exotics harder to get and "more interesting".[/i][/b] [u][Something really needs to be done with these two problems; or your going to loose what you had in Destiny 1]. [/u]
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I'm pretty sure the system is rigged towards giving you stuff you already have. I've been needing a pair of gloves for my Warlock for weeks to get to 305 and a helmet for my Hunter. I've gotten multiples of everything else from powerful engrams, but can't get what I need at all. Similar situation with my Titan, who is 305. I've gotten every raid piece multiple times over the weeks and still haven't seen the gauntlets. Been raiding with him every week since it started.
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Dismantled my 12th Sweet Business last night. I was playing with a buddy and said, "I swear to -blam!-ing god if this engram turns into another Sweet Business..." lo and behold. He just laughed at me. Been trying to get Winter's Guile since day one. I've gotten 13 Sweet Businesses, 10 Eye of Another Worlds, 7 Nezarec's Sins, 6 Lunafaction Boots, 5 Hard Lights, 5 Sunshots, and a bunch of other repeats I didn't keep track of. I don't even get excited when I get exotic engrams anymore, I just expect it to be another repeat that I'll use for an infusion or just dismantle.
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Omg yes!!!!!!! i wouldnt be so bothered if its just regular exotic or legendary engrams, but it happens on my weekly raid engram/loot too. I have 3 characters and have looted 12 ghost primus in the past week the number is still going up. I have literally gotten nothing else but ghost primus. and not just from raid loot chest, also emperor engrams, harthorne clan engrams, as long as it is related to the raid it is a ghost primus. if we r gonna do some math here. there r 10 lootable items for each character, 10%chance to get something different, 4 bosses in the raid (often drops nothing) and 2 imperial engram and 1 clan engram. i have at least 3-4 chances to loot on each of characters. combined 9-12. so the chances to get 12 ghost primus in a row without getting anything else in between is like me winning the lottery, bungie im playing a game here not trying to win millions dollar off u. so please fix this random
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3 RepliesYou do realize you can preview the exotic engram. It will show you what it may turn into. It's about 8 different items.
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How many exotic weapons are in this game that can be gained through engrams? I dont know. 15? How many exotic warlock pieces are there? 8? So that should mean that i have a better chance at getting a weapon. I have not gained a single exotic weapon from an exotic engram... I call rng bullsh**
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I give you a D- for your effort. Not once did you attempt to calculate the probability of getting 13 of the same item (it's not that hard, btw). Instead you showed math for a completely unrelated question.
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We used to all open exotics at the same time in D1, and we had moments where three of us all got the exact exotic.. sometimes it was only two of us... Maybe it’s a time based thing in the RNG.. now we need a data miner to find out what times we should open our engrams to get what we want...
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Ehh. I've sunk a bit into the game and have every exotic for Hunter and every weapon. It's been a bitch getting the last few titan and warlock ones though.
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2 RepliesYou sure? I got almost every exotic in the game and almost no doubles dropped for me? Guess I'm lucky then
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1 ReplyThats a lot of math for someone who doesnt understand the concept of sample size. Small sample gives biased results almost always.
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Edited by The_Grand_Turian: 11/15/2017 8:11:42 PMDestiny 1 was even tougher. Exotic drops were a whole lot rarer. After 100+ Nightfalls my friend never could get the Transversive Steps or the Jade Rabbit to drop.
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2 RepliesYou are making A LOT of assumptions here. Typically, drops follow a specific distribution function and it would not be discrete. In addition, you are also assuming each drop is independent of the last. If there is some form of "smart RNG" (even though most players would not call it smart) each drop is not independent making you calculations wrong.
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Speaking of defying odds the "curtain call" seems to be out of the vanguard loot pool,every other item multiple times but not that damn launcher.
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