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4/10/2015 9:00:02 PM
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There is a reason that casinos in particular have a board up that tells you that the previous numbers were in a roulette game for example. As humans we want to believe that past results will change future outcome. Well if the last three times it rolled red I should bet black right? Wrong. Numbers, cards and the like do not remember the last roll. If the system is truly random then you are right you have a 5.8% chance every time you play that you will get a ghorn as a drop. End of story. You cannot factor in all the times you have played in the past because you still have a %5.8 chance to get it. "But wait I've played 1000 night falls and still haven't gotten it, since I've played 1000 times my odds should have went up right?" Wrong, every run is fresh and past runs don't matter, numbers don't matter, 5.8% across the board every time.
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  • Edited by beaker_redux: 4/10/2015 9:13:19 PM
    Truly, but according to statistics, the odds of getting "heads" when flipping a coin is 50%. The odds of flipping "heads" 3 times in a row is 12.5%, even though each time the odds are 50% and each individual event is separate and uncorrelated to the next flip. I'm simply applying the same logic. I'm not saying that my odds should or will increase as the number of opportunites increase. Not at all. I'm simply tracking where I am in a straightforward statistical manner. And the next time an exotic weapon drops, I have a 5.8% chance for a ghorn. But the odds of my seeing 24 exotics weapons in a row without a ghorn are dwindling to 23%. I think this brings to mind a responsibility for game developers. If they're going to throw players at the mercy of RNG, they need to have logic builtin to avoid the long tails. For every player that gets it their first drop, there's going to be those other players at the other end of the curve. And those who reach the 1% range will have seen 90-100 exotic weapons drop before their first ghorn. As developers, if you're going to create an exotic weapons that is so far and away more valuable than the others (ice breaker and ghorn), then they need to have additional logic in play to avoid the frustration of players who find themselves on the long tail of the statistical curve. They've done this with ice breaker. They've sold it a ton. And they needed to. The unique ammo generation is critical to long raids such as nightfalls. They need to do the same with Ghallarhorn. While it's not as critical as ice breaker, it does make certain parts of raids much easier. The VoG gatekeepers are infinitely easier with ghallarhorn. Running the sword on crota is easier because it's easier to bring down the swordbearer with ghorn. Do I need it? Nah. I've beaten everything without it. Would I like it? Heck ya. It's a great tool.

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