My only question is, do we know if the chances are divided by exotic weapon and exotic armor or is it just an exotic drop in general. That would change your numbers because then you would have to include exotic armors as well.
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Ouch. Good point. Yes, I was just considering exotic weapon drops. Factoring in exotic armor would affect the exotic weapon drop rate, but not affect the chances of a particular weapon being dropped when a weapon does drop. So the numbers above are still relevant when tracking exotic weapon drops, but not exotics overall. How I use the above information? I'm just keeping track of exotic weapons dropped. That's all. The frequency lately has been poor, but it is what it is. I'm using the stats above to avoid being frustrated about not seeing my particular weapon of choice. If I reach 38 exotic weapons, I'll become frustrated. If I reach 49, I'll be disappointed that bungie doesn't have some sliding scale in place for remaining exotics to increase their drop rate. But, that's life in the video game world. No one said it was fair.
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I completely understand your frustration. And I truly feel that they weight the different exotics with different percentages instead of straight across the board.
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I hope that's not the case. That would be a cruel thing to do to customers.