I like the math, but can say out of experience, it is irrelevant. I have received a minimum of two of every exotic as a drop except Red Death (only one) and Hard Light (never). I am probably pushing 200 opportunities or more between Nightfalls and raid drops. I have four Ghallarhorns, three Crux and three Mythoclast. I have gotten at least six Suros, six Patience and Time and five Dragon's Breath and four Thunderlords.
I bought Hard Light off of Xûr, otherwise I still wouldn't have it.
Another elusive little bugger is the new raid sparrow. I cannot get one. I haven't checked my hard mode completions in a little while, but it feels like I should have one by now.
Anyhow, there are some things that need to be sold by Xür because the game will not yield them for some players.
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Yeah, I think if everything was rotated through Xur, the frustration would disappear. I also can't seem to get that crota sparrow. Strange. Between my 3 characters, I've nearly run out of room for time breakers. But that crota sparrow eludes. Again, I wouldn't complain if the long tails were somehow cut off. I've got 3 Vex and a pile of Revenges, but I can't get the Found Verdict. Do I need it? Nope. But I'd like it. I'd like to have one of everything. Statistically, there's nothing wrong, but I've fallen into the long tail of folks who have run Vault numerous times without it dropping. I'd like to see some kind of built in logic that would boost the wieght of those items not yet found. I'm not asking for a certain drop, because then the game is a certain grind. But an increased weighting would eliminate 90% of the BMC on this forum about RNG.
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I agreed. I've always felt that by your tenth completion, for a specific difficulty, you should have everything that raid has to offer. No duplicates until you've gotten one of everything. Make it character specific. I think most people would be fine with a net 30 completions and have every single piece of gear and weapon. I think they are close to this with Crota's End. VoG is simply terrible. I still do not have Praetorian Foil or Praedyth's Timepiece... I have received everything else in triplicate, except Fatebringer.