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Edited by severalTurtles: 3/4/2015 4:48:44 AM
11

The ACTUAL odds of getting a hawkmoon 2-headshot kill

So I was going over this basic problem in my head; what are the odds of getting a 2-hit kill with two headshots with a fresh magazine(EXCLUDING THE MINUSCLE CHANCE OF A OHK)? Spoiler alert: it's 39%. To get that answer, good way to think of it is in terms of the first and second bullet individually. Each time you reload, the 1st shot runs a 1/13 chance of being buffed THREE TIMES, as the buffs can stack. Therefore, the odds of it not being buffed is (12/13)^3 (to the third power), so the odds of the first bullet NOT being buffed AT LEAST ONCE is 1728/2197, or 79%, meaning the odds of the first bullet being buffed is 21%. After the first bullet is fired, whether or not it has been buffed has been revealed, and if it was buffed, you get a two-shot kill, end of story. Therefore the odds of getting a 2-hit kill are AT LEAST 21%, but for the other 79% of the time, you could also get a 2-hit kill if the second bullet is buffed. IF the 1st Bullet wasn't buffed, you can look at the enigma of the second bullet by using the same method, this time (11/12)^3, because one possible buff location has been eliminated. Therefore, the odds of the SECOND bullet NOT being buffed is 1331/1728, or 77%, so the odds of it being buffed is 23%. However, you cannot simply add 21% and 23% together, as the second percentage assumes a buff hasn't been placed on the first bullet. We can work around this though, by multiplying the the 23% chance of the second bullet being buffed assuming the first bullet is not BY THE ODDS OF THE FIRST BULLET NOT BEING BUFFED. So that would be 23%*79%, or 18%. Add that to the odds of the first bullet being buffed and you get a final probability of 39%. That means, directly after a reload, if you land two headshots then there is a 39% the guy is dead. End of story, perfect mathematics. BTW, the only reason I posted this was because of all the errors in mathematics I saw on the forum.

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  • Edited by Adam: 3/5/2015 9:50:29 PM
    This post just serves as further proof on how OP Thorn is. It trumps Hawkmoon by far at the minute. Hawkmoon is still my baby though :)

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  • Still not sure why people are using this over thorn? Thorn 2 shot kills EVERYTIME if both shots hit the head, with the send it perk, it's range disadvatage is mild or non existent most of the time and it fires quicker. Hawkmoon I'm sure is a beast in PVE, but I can't see using it for PVP.

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  • Edited by sleepyheadvee: 3/5/2015 1:34:54 AM
    I get two-shot by Hawkmoon a lot. Sniped from across the map with it. I love that gun (and I'm not being sarcastic here. It's truly great.)

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  • Timur's Lash is always two headshots to kill. No luck needed. Slower firing rate, though. That's the trade-off.

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    • The Thorn beats it. Simply put one bullet from the Thorn can remove 3 quarters of health.

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      • 2 manic bullets plus 1 normal bullet = 3 3 plus 2 = 5 (# of shits I have taken today) 5 minus 2(two solid shits)= 3 There's 3 sides to a triangle!!!! Illuminati confirmed

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      • I have been two shot twice in a row by the same person before and it happens a lot.

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      • I never go into the math but it's a pretty high chance. High enough. And when used over an extended amount of time the one hit kill is kinda consistent too. I think I was getting a OHK about every 4 or 5 games. Don't quote me on that. I'm just guessing. There was a period where I used the Hawkmoon exclusively and I got about one or two a day. The two shot kills happens quite often. Often enough to where I expected every kill to be 2 shots. Sometimes I was so confident in it that I wouldn't even fire anymore after I landed 2 headshots.

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      • Edited by BeegieB: 3/4/2015 5:04:23 AM
        The 'actual' [i]odds[/i] are ~1:1.56 that hawkmoon with 2-shot headshot on a fresh mag. That's assuming the [i]probability[/i] you reported is correct... I'm not sure if your assumptions on luck in the chamber are correct. Because, you assume that 2 in the chamber + luck in the chamber has 3 possible rolls on the first round. I argue that there's only 2 rolls in the first round, and if you follow that logic, the [i]probability[/i] of a 2-shot headshot on a fresh mag is ~28.4%.

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        • :O

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        • Nerd math.

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