My opinion on the Ukrainian crisis

The future is a little uncertain with Ukraine right now. Arguably, one could say that the country is in danger of collapsing into civil war due to the political crisis in the country. The Ukraine is very politically divided. Roughly 20% of the country is Russian, and they mainly reside in the Eastern half of the country and Crimea. The other 80% is mostly composed of Ukrainians, and largely pro-Western. In the Crimean peninsula, Russian Ukrainians make up 60% of the population. Recently, the capital building in Crimea was taken over by pro-Russian insurgents that proceeded to raise the Russian flag over the building. This has precipitated major tensions on the peninsula. Now, Russia is moving troops into Crimea on the basis of political stabilization. There are two ways to interpret this: Russia created the crisis on the Crimea in order to create a pretext for intervention, or they're afraid of losing their ability to project force (perhaps both, they may think it's easier to put out their own fire). As I've said to others, a good portion of the Black Sea Fleet is stationed at Sevastopol. Given Russia's intention on reestablishing influence in Eastern Europe, as well as great power aspirations, losing their largest naval base in the Caucus and Med. regions would significantly hurt their ability to create hegemony in Eastern Europe and project force outside of the Black Sea. We're seeing a somewhat similar rationale play out in Putin's support for Assad. Tartus is their only port in the Mediterranean Sea, and due to restrictions on ships passing through the Turkish Straits, integral to their ability to easily deploy naval assets across the globe. Now, there are other reasons why Putin is supporting Assad, but that's a big one. Now, from a strategic perspective, losing both bases (which is plausible) would be a devastating blow to Russia's maritime power. Right now, the Russian government considers maritime power to be integral to their to global rise. Which is why we're seeing an emphasis on modernizing Russia fleet, especially in the Arctic. Granted, as a navy-type guy, I view most things from a naval perspective. I'm not sure if the country will slide into civil war, honestly. There are good arguments for both stabilization and fragmentation. However, I don't think that Russia will invade mainland Ukraine. There is the possibility of conflict on the peninsula, though. Especially given how Ukraine has responded thus far. Part of the reason Russia will not invade mainland Ukraine has to do with a military incapacity to do so. We saw significant flaws in Russia's ability to conduct combat operations during the South Ossetian war in 2008. The Russian air force was unable to establish aerial dominance, the officer corps was largely political, they had trouble communicating with soldiers in the field, soldiers were using World War Two era methods of land navigation, there were significant issues with logistics, and other things as well. The reason why they succeeded over Georgia was because the small nation was incompetent itself. While many of these issues have been addressed through a comprehensive modernization program, I doubt they have sufficient capabilities to take on the entire Ukrainian military if Kiev decided to fight back. And it appears as if they're ready to, given their mobilization of troops. This is my initial analysis, but I'm going to be doing much more research in the coming days.